atdub,
Review this analysis by our good friend Glenn Schleede. It's a good start to define sufficient wind or to be more exact, the lack thereof, in most of the mid-Atlanta region.
James Hall
Cohocton Wind Watch
Electric Industry Terms Important in Understanding Two of the Critically Important Limitations of Electricity from Wind Energy by Glenn R. Schleede
1KEYEL%7E2.DOC
February 17, 2008
Electric Industry Terms Important in Understanding Two of the Critically Important Limitations of Electricity from Wind Energy; specifically:
· First, wind turbines have little or no “capacity value”; i.e., they are unlikely to be producing electricity at the time of peak electricity demand.
· Second, a kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity from a wind turbine has less value than a kWh of electricity from a reliable (“dispatchable”) generating unit; i.e., from a unit that can be called upon to produce electricity whenever the electricity is needed.
Wind industry lobbyists and advocates often mislead the public, media and government officials by making false claims and by using terms that may be intended to confuse their listeners.
This brief paper explains a few key terms that are needed to understand the critically important differences between the quality and value of (i) the intermittent, volatile and unreliable electricity from wind turbines and (ii) the reliable and more valuable electricity from generating units that can be called upon to produce electricity whenever it is needed.
1. Generating capacity, which is measured in kilowatts (kW) or megawatts (MW). This is a measure of a generating unit’s ability to produce electricity at an instant in time. This term can be confusing because there are different legitimate measures of generating capacity:
a. Nameplate capacity, which is the capacity rating shown on the nameplate attached to the generator by the manufacturer. ("Rated capacity" is often used synonymously with "nameplate capacity.")
b. Summer capacity and winter capacity, which for many units (e.g., fossil-fueled) are often different from nameplate capacity because the units ability to produce is affected by air temperature.
2. Capacity credit, which is also measured in kW or MW. This is a critically important measure to generating companies and grid managers. This measure indicates the amount of generating capacity that can be counted on to help meet peak electricity demand. There are many reasons why the assigned capacity credit may differ from any of the above measures. Generally, this number is determined empirically; i.e., with a specific test of what the unit can produce (again in kW or MW) under specific test conditions.
a. Wind turbine "capacity credits." In fact, the real capacity value of a wind turbine is the kW or MW of generating capacity that is available at the actual time of peak electricity demand on the electric grid serving the area. The real capacity value of a wind turbine or “wind farm” is generally less than 10% of nameplate capacity and often 0% or slightly above -- simply because, at the time of peak electricity demand, the wind isn’t blowing at a speed that will permit the turbine to produce any or much electricity. Claims of wind turbine capacity value have been exaggerated by wind industry officials and lobbyists, by regulatory agencies, ISOs, RTOs,[1] or other grid manager's arbitrary decisions. Capacity value was also exaggerated in a misleading report produced by GE in March 2005 for the New York State Energy R&D Authority (NYSERDA). That report has been cited by the NY ISO to arbitrarily assign “wind farms” in NY a 10% capacity credit (i.e., 10% of nameplate capacity) during summers and 30% in winters.
b. Capacity credits for normally reliable ("dispatchable") generating units -- i.e., those designed to be available whenever called upon -- may be less than their "nameplate" (or "summer" or "winter") capacity for a variety of reasons. For example, they may have mechanical problems that prevent them from running at full rated capacity but which problems are not serious enough to take them out of service for repair or overhaul. Grid managers often require that generating unit owners/operators report each day (perhaps around noon) how much capacity can be counted on during the next day from each generating unit.
3. Availability. The wind industry often tries to mislead people with this term. Generally, it means that a unit is physically available and has fuel needed to permit it to generate electricity when needed. Or, put another way, it is NOT out of commission ('off line") for maintenance, repair or overhaul. Wind industry spokespersons often misuse this term by ignoring the critical second criterion; i.e. "has the fuel" (wind) needed to permit it to generate electricity. A wind turbine without wind has no real value to electric customers.
4. Generation, which is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) or megawatt-hours (MWh). This is an after the fact measure of the amount of electricity produced over some period of time (hour, day, week, month, year, etc.) Most reports by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show "net" generation -- which is usually measured at a substation entry point to a transmission line. The term "net" reflects the fact that some of the electricity produced by a generating unit is used BY that generating unit (lights, pumps, scrubbers, precipitators, etc.).
5. Capacity factor, which is measured as a percentage of nameplate capacity. It is an after the fact measure with the percentage determined by dividing the actual (metered) output (in kWh or MWh), divided by the nameplate capacity (in kW or MW) times the number of hours in the period for which the calculation is done (e.g., 8760 for a year).
a. Wind turbine capacity factors. Wind turbines have low capacity factors because they are dependent on wind speed. They start producing a small amount of electricity with a wind speed about 6 or 7 miles per hour (mph), reach “rated” capacity around 31 mph and cut out around 56 mph. Therefore, their output is inherently intermittent, volatile and unreliable. A 1 MW (1,000 kW) wind turbine that produces 2,190,000 kWh of electricity during a year has achieved a capacity factor of 25%. That is 2,190,000 kWh divided by 1,000 kW x 8760 hours; or 2,190,000 divided by 8,760,000 = .25).
b. Dispatchable unit capacity factors. Capacity factors for reliable or “dispatchable” generating units vary widely depending upon (i) the design and intended purpose of the unit (i.e., for baseload, intermediate or peak load service) and (ii) the plans and choices of the operator who is responsible for keeping the electric grid in balance (electricity supply & demand, voltage and frequency).
i. “Baseload” units (often powered by coal or nuclear energy that heat water to produce steam that spins the turbine that produces electricity) are designed to run all or most of the time and often have annual capacity factors in the 70% to 90% range. They tend to take longer to start up and bring to full generating capacity.
ii. “Intermediate load” units are those that can be “ramped” up and down (i.e., output increased or decreased) more quickly than units designed for “baseload” service. Some “intermediate load” units will use steam turbines and some will use gas turbines and some will use both. Often these units will be powered by natural gas and, much less often, oil. Their annual capacity factors vary widely, perhaps from percentages in the teens to percentages in the 50s or 60s
iii. “Peak load” units are those intended for use primarily when electricity demand is at high levels. Generally these units will use gas turbine technology or internal combustion engines, powered by natural gas or oil. They can be started up and shut down quickly. Their annual capacity factors will often be in the range of 3% to 7% because they are intended for use only when electricity demand is high. Hydropower units (falling water turns the turbines) may be used for baseload, intermediate or peak load service – depending on the availability of water in the area. For example, hydropower units provide baseload power in the Pacific Northwest but are used only for peaking service in areas with fewer water resources. Hydropower units are used for “load leveling” (i.e., keeping electricity supply equal to demand) because their output can be controlled instantaneously.
Units powered by biomass (wood, etc.) or geothermal energy are considered “dispatchable” and may also be used in baseload or intermediate service in areas where these energy sources are available.As indicated above, wind turbines are “intermittent” and neither reliable nor dispatchable because they are dependent on wind speed. Solar photovoltaic panels are also intermittent sources of electricity because they are dependent on sunlight.
6. Efficiency. Unfortunately, some in the rapidly growing wind opposition movement (and some in the wind industry) use this term incorrectly; i.e., they use the term "efficiency" when they should be using the term "capacity factor." Efficiency, as that term is used in the electric industry, refers to the relationship between BTU input and kWh output. The result of the calculation is generally referred to as the unit's "heat rate."
Glenn R. Schleede
18220 Turnberry Drive
Round Hill, VA 20141-2574
540-338-9958
[1] ISO = Independent System Operator; RTO = Regional Transmission Operator. Both types of organizations are involved in managing an electric grid.
Who's behind it?
Linear Mode
