One thing not mentioned is that PV panels are only part of a PV system. That $3-4/W quoted for "solar power" only includes the PV panels. Throw in inverters, hardware, and installation and you're talking $8-10/W. As a result, if the costs of the inverters, hardware, and installation don't drop it doesn't matter how cheap the panels get -- they could be free and PV would still be uncompetitive with fossil fuels.
My point is that PV cannot "clobber" fossil fuels based on development of the PV panels alone. This is significant because a number of companies are promising super low-cost modules in relatively short time frames and claiming they will meet the magical $1/W milestone required for cost-effective PV. What they neglect is that this milestone depends on other components of the PV system reaching cost milestones of their own, and accelerating the timetable on a single component -- in this case, the PV modules -- will not do much to accelerate the timetable for PV systems as a whole.
In short, if they claim they will "clobber" fossil fuels on an accelerated time schedule on the basis of PV module cost alone, their goals are critically dependent upon other companies doing half the work for them. That's not to say that pursuing low cost on an accelerated timetable is a bad thing; rather, it is to say that even if we have modules at $0.80/W in five years, PV will not necessarily be clobbering fossil fuels. And modules for $0.50/W will most certainly not undercut coal and nuclear by 50%, though that might be the case if the entire PV system costs $0.50/W.
I have much more faith in manufacturers who are looking at the entire PV system, even if they do not themselves manufacture or install the other components. Crystalline silicon manufacturers are much more mature than their thin-film counterparts in this regard, and I don't think thin-film companies will be as competitive as they can be until they collectively learn this lesson no matter how low their module costs are. Some of them do -- First Solar comes to mind -- but it appears that Flisom does not.
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