Green Peace Leader Rags on Solar Power

[Wobs]

List of solar thermal power stations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The following are under construction (from Wiki):
Andasol 1 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW with heat storage, parabolic trough design
Andasol 2 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW with heat storage, parabolic trough design
La Risca 1 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW , parabolic trough design[3]
PS20 solar power tower, Spain Seville, 20 MW, power tower design
Beni Mathar Plant, Morocco, 20 MW for hybrid plant, technology unknown[4]
Solar Tres Power Tower, Spain, 17 MW with heat storage, power tower design


The following are announced projects (from Wiki):

Ivanpah Solar, USA California, 500 MW + 400 MW optional extension, power tower design[5]
Mojave Solar Park, USA California, 553 MW, parabolic trough design[6]
Pisgah, USA California near Pisgah north of I-40, 500 MW, dish design[7]
Unnamed, USA Florida, 300 MW, Fresnel reflector design[8]
Imperial Valley, USA California, 300 MW, dish design[9]
Solana solar power plant, USA Arizona southwest of Phoenix, 280 MW, parabolic trough design[10]
Beacon Solar Energy Project, USA California, 250 MW, parabolic trough design[11]
Negev Desert, Israel, 250 MW, design will be known after tender[12]
Carrizo Solar Farm, USA California near San Luis Obispo, 177 MW, Fresnel reflector design[13]
Upington, South Africa, 100 MW, power tower design[14]
Shams, Abu Dhabi Madinat Zayad, 100 MW, parabolic through design[15]
Yazd Plant, Iran, 67 MW steam input for hybrid gas plant, technology unknown.[16]
Barstow, USA California, 59 MW with heat storage and back-up, parabolic trough design[17]
Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project, 50 MW steam input for hybrid gas plant, parabolic trough design[18]
Kuraymat Plant, Egypt, 40 MW steam input for a gas powered plant, parabolic trough design[19][20]
Hassi R'mel, Algeria, 25 MW steam input for gas powered plant, parabolic trough design[21]
Cloncurry solar power station, Australia, 10 MW with heat storage, power tower design[22]
Sopogy, Hawaii, 1 MW, MicroCSP design[23]

Total capacity is not currently large compared to global energy demands. The potential is greater of course, but issues that I've already tried to discuss (and others) will limit its contribution.

You maybe aware of other projects of course, other than what already has been built, but overall the currently projected capacity including those announced isn't huge.

There will be successes and failures. There will be false dawns still to come, and there will real expansion to enjoy. But I cannot understand anyone who professes to be enthusiastic about solar energy, that refuses to have a balance discussion on the subject. That refuses to discuss how the future might limit its expansion. That they do not want to learn about such issues.

Probably best to agree to disagree or course.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Wobs

List of solar thermal power stations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The following are under construction (from Wiki):
Andasol 1 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW with heat storage, parabolic trough design
Andasol 2 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW with heat storage, parabolic trough design
La Risca 1 solar power station, Spain, 50 MW , parabolic trough design[3]
PS20 solar power tower, Spain Seville, 20 MW, power tower design
Beni Mathar Plant, Morocco, 20 MW for hybrid plant, technology unknown[4]
Solar Tres Power Tower, Spain, 17 MW with heat storage, power tower design


The following are announced projects (from Wiki):

Ivanpah Solar, USA California, 500 MW + 400 MW optional extension, power tower design[5]
Mojave Solar Park, USA California, 553 MW, parabolic trough design[6]
Pisgah, USA California near Pisgah north of I-40, 500 MW, dish design[7]
Unnamed, USA Florida, 300 MW, Fresnel reflector design[8]
Imperial Valley, USA California, 300 MW, dish design[9]
Solana solar power plant, USA Arizona southwest of Phoenix, 280 MW, parabolic trough design[10]
Beacon Solar Energy Project, USA California, 250 MW, parabolic trough design[11]
Negev Desert, Israel, 250 MW, design will be known after tender[12]
Carrizo Solar Farm, USA California near San Luis Obispo, 177 MW, Fresnel reflector design[13]
Upington, South Africa, 100 MW, power tower design[14]
Shams, Abu Dhabi Madinat Zayad, 100 MW, parabolic through design[15]
Yazd Plant, Iran, 67 MW steam input for hybrid gas plant, technology unknown.[16]
Barstow, USA California, 59 MW with heat storage and back-up, parabolic trough design[17]
Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project, 50 MW steam input for hybrid gas plant, parabolic trough design[18]
Kuraymat Plant, Egypt, 40 MW steam input for a gas powered plant, parabolic trough design[19][20]
Hassi R'mel, Algeria, 25 MW steam input for gas powered plant, parabolic trough design[21]
Cloncurry solar power station, Australia, 10 MW with heat storage, power tower design[22]
Sopogy, Hawaii, 1 MW, MicroCSP design[23]

Total capacity is not currently large compared to global energy demands. The potential is greater of course, but issues that I've already tried to discuss (and others) will limit its contribution.

You maybe aware of other projects of course, other than what already has been built, but overall the currently projected capacity including those announced isn't huge.

There will be successes and failures. There will be false dawns still to come, and there will real expansion to enjoy. But I cannot understand anyone who professes to be enthusiastic about solar energy, that refuses to have a balance discussion on the subject. That refuses to discuss how the future might limit its expansion. That they do not want to learn about such issues.

Probably best to agree to disagree or course.

Thanks for highlighting the Solar Thermal projects, which are only the beginning of the commercialization phase of this technology, many of which expected to be built within a few years.

As indicated before over and over and over, near every single technology has limits to it's expansion and application. Again nothing new in what you have said. The potential for Solar Thermal is huge, regardless of announced capacity. Capital costs will fall and the efficiencies improve over time as the technology evolves, but the price of the sun will remain the same. i.e. zero. Of course there will be stops and starts and costs, as with many technologies. That's all par for the course. I have learnt all there is to learn from your arguments, which are far from convincing. You have not presented one argument that holds up in such a way, as to be a show stopper. You keep raising points and repeating your arguments and yet not one of them would appear to change the real world situation.

I have made my point that Solar Thermal energy has huge potential and can offer a significant contribution to the global energy mix along with Solar PV from today and well into the future. There is no point you have raised that would change that view. Your case against that view is just not compelling and all current external indicators don't reflect your sentiment.



Oh and don't also forget these;

Mega Solar: the World’s 13 Biggest Solar Thermal Energy Projects : EcoWorldly

Some of these projects, likely overlap with the ones you mentioned from Wiki, but these 13 projects alone equate to around 3.8 gW of Solar Thermal CSP. Not a bad start and several projects also they have extended capacities in mind. That is a significant jump start when you look at what's around at present. This is only the beginning though in substantial commercial terms and much more of Solar Thermal will be to come. In 50 years from now, the sun will cost the same ( FREE ) and the technology evolved even further. For the long term, Solar Thermal has fantastic potential along with Solar PV.

[forfismum]

So many links,so little time......... Google is on meltdown......................chaos looms

[Wobs]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Thanks for highlighting the Solar Thermal projects, which are only the beginning of the commercialization phase of this technology, many of which expected to be built within a few years.

I have made my point that Solar Thermal energy has huge potential and can offer a significant contribution to the global energy mix along with Solar PV from today and well into the future. There is no point you have raised that would change that view. Your case against that view is just not compelling and all current external indicators don't reflect your sentiment.

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Oh and don't also forget these;

Mega Solar: the World’s 13 Biggest Solar Thermal Energy Projects : EcoWorldly

Some of these projects, likely overlap with the ones you mentioned from Wiki, but these 13 projects alone equate to around 3.8 gW of Solar Thermal CSP. Not a bad start and several projects also they have extended capacities in mind. That is a significant jump start when you look at what's around at present. This is only the beginning though in substantial commercial terms and much more of Solar Thermal will be to come. In 50 years from now, the sun will cost the same ( FREE ) and the technology evolved even further. For the long term, Solar Thermal has fantastic potential along with Solar PV.
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3.8GW globally isn't much. Yes we're both sure there will be much more, but some of those proposed probably won't get built, as we've seen before.

Compare that with wind which has about 94GW globally. Its got a long way to go ATM.

Also, global energy demands are huge. Silly numbers. Something like 0.02%(?) is solar currently. Probably less, and energy demands are growing globally, so as a proportion of energy supply, it has a long way to go. Yes, such increases in demand will open doors for CSP that would otherwise be closed economically.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Wobs

3.8GW globally isn't much. Yes we're both sure there will be much more, but some of those proposed probably won't get built, as we've seen before.

Compare that with wind which has about 94GW globally. Its got a long way to go ATM.

Also, global energy demands are huge. Silly numbers. Something like 0.02%(?) is solar currently. Probably less, and energy demands are growing globally, so as a proportion of energy supply, it has a long way to go. Yes, such increases in demand will open doors for CSP that would otherwise be closed economically.

My discussion centres around the projected trends and rather than solely today. Clearly the base is low for Solar Thermal CSP. It's just taking off. However, the growth rate of Solar PV is very significant ( around 40% in 2008 ). We are essentially seeing plant output capacity double every couple of years. So long as demand is there and fossil fuels prices are high as they are today, this growth is expected to continue. Solar Thermal CSP is at a lower base at present, but it is also projected to have strong growth well into the future. As I said before, as these technologies improve, their costs come down and the cost of sun remains at zero.


Fossil fuels will progressively increase in cost well into the future. Thus it's very clear that long terms projections are likely to show renewable energy such as Solar Thermal PV to be far more cost effective and thus grow far more rapidly. Wind power had evolved further along its path much longer ago than solar, so it's expected it will have a higher base today. I expect Solar PV and Solar Thermal combined will catch wind up though, as in 10 years time I expect PV will be very affordable and it is deployable in cities on roofs without using any land. Solar Thermal CSP can supplement the demand for stored energy and for solar thermal energy, thermal storage is one of the cheapest forms of man made energy storage around.


Earlier this week, ReneSola indicated that it would boost its wafer capacity to 1.1 gigawatts at the end of this year and to 2 gigawatts by the end of next year. There are at least a dozen solar PV companies around the world of this size, growing at similar phenomenal pace. Project this growth ten years forward. Solar Thermal can help supplement PV, particularly because of it's comparatively cheap thermal energy storage. Even mainstream power companies are offering solar and wind energy solutions, such as GE Power and others etc... We are at the crossroads and the potential growth for both technologies looks very strong for the future and they look to offer a significant contribution to our energy mix well into the future.

[Wobs]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

My discussion centres around the projected trends and rather than solely today. Clearly the base is low for Solar Thermal CSP. It's just taking off. However, the growth rate of Solar PV is very significant ( around 40% in 2008 ). We are essentially seeing plant output capacity double every couple of years. So long as demand is there and fossil fuels prices are high as they are today, this growth is expected to continue. Solar Thermal CSP is at a lower base at present, but it is also projected to have strong growth well into the future. As I said before, as these technologies improve, their costs come down and the cost of sun remains at zero.


Fossil fuels will progressively increase in cost well into the future. Thus it's very clear that long terms projections are likely to show renewable energy such as Solar Thermal PV to be far more cost effective and thus grow far more rapidly. Wind power had evolved further along its path much longer ago than solar, so it's expected it will have a higher base today. I expect Solar PV and Solar Thermal combined will catch wind up though, as in 10 years time I expect PV will be very affordable and it is deployable in cities on roofs without using any land. Solar Thermal CSP can supplement the demand for stored energy and for solar thermal energy, thermal storage is one of the cheapest forms of man made energy storage around.


Earlier this week, ReneSola indicated that it would boost its wafer capacity to 1.1 gigawatts at the end of this year and to 2 gigawatts by the end of next year. There are at least a dozen solar PV companies around the world of this size, growing at similar phenomenal pace. Project this growth ten years forward. Solar Thermal can help supplement PV, particularly because of it's comparatively cheap thermal energy storage. Even mainstream power companies are offering solar and wind energy solutions, such as GE Power and others etc... We are at the crossroads and the potential growth for both technologies looks very strong for the future and they look to offer a significant contribution to our energy mix well into the future.

As I've already pointed out, such optimistic projections are rarely realised in real life. For a start, maintenance issues and energy costs of running said plants are not accurately known (they will vary between future plants), which is why it is disappointing re your refusal to discuss such issues. Not all proposed plants will be realised, and some that are built will be failures. Its early days still, so mistakes will still be made, so just because a projected expansion may claim a future installed capacity of X, we will likley see a much lower amount of energy actually supplied.

The expansion of wind energy should be a lesson, both in terms of flows of money, issues on return of energy (how much is actually used), and scale of expansion and why such increases occur where they do (think politics, not just site suitablilty).

When a technology is new, it is far from suprising that a rapid expansion will be seen. A 40% rise is not suprising when you have a breakthrough in cost/efficiency. It will soon find it's level again in a few years time. It will likely be higher sales than before, but a year on year increase of say 40% for 10 years is unlikely. We've already seen fossil fuel prices not rise as much as we expect in recent decades, and we may see the same again (as you said, nothing is certain).

I would love it if solar power became the major player in the energy mix you claim it will, but a mixture of factors and history of other markets say otherwise.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Wobs

As I've already pointed out, such optimistic projections are rarely realised in real life. For a start, maintenance issues and energy costs of running said plants are not accurately known (they will vary between future plants), which is why it is disappointing re your refusal to discuss such issues. Not all proposed plants will be realised, and some that are built will be failures. Its early days still, so mistakes will still be made, so just because a projected expansion may claim a future installed capacity of X, we will likley see a much lower amount of energy actually supplied.

The expansion of wind energy should be a lesson, both in terms of flows of money, issues on return of energy (how much is actually used), and scale of expansion and why such increases occur where they do (think politics, not just site suitablilty).

When a technology is new, it is far from suprising that a rapid expansion will be seen. A 40% rise is not suprising when you have a breakthrough in cost/efficiency. It will soon find it's level again in a few years time. It will likely be higher sales than before, but a year on year increase of say 40% for 10 years is unlikely. We've already seen fossil fuel prices not rise as much as we expect in recent decades, and we may see the same again (as you said, nothing is certain).

I would love it if solar power became the major player in the energy mix you claim it will, but a mixture of factors and history of other markets say otherwise.

A mixture of factors don't say anything because those factors have yet to play themselves out in such a way that would contradict the reality of Solar Thermals immense growth and strong growth projections and as it stands the mix of factors are favorable and until that changes, the growth path will continue. When your so called factors prove the status quo is no longer valid in the real world, then there might be something worth discussing, but until such time, the status quo remains with strong growth in the real world, rather than speculative factors in the forum world. I prefer to go with the real world, until proven otherwise and that hasn't happened and there is no sign of it happening any time soon. I'm sure you will be one of the first to let me know when and if such factors do play themselves out in reality in regard to Solar Thermal energy, but not any time soon.

[Wobs]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

A mixture of factors don't say anything because those factors have yet to play themselves out in such a way that would contradict the reality of Solar Thermals immense growth and strong growth projections and as it stands the mix of factors are favorable and until that changes, the growth path will continue. When your so called factors prove the status quo is no longer valid in the real world, then there might be something worth discussing, but until such time, the status quo remains with strong growth in the real world, rather than speculative factors in the forum world. I prefer to go with the real world, until proven otherwise and that hasn't happened and there is no sign of it happening any time soon. I'm sure you will be one of the first to let me know when and if such factors do play themselves out in reality in regard to Solar Thermal energy, but not any time soon.

This seems to be the crux of the issue. You're not going with the real world, as there is no evidence to suggest that the growth will continue at the current pace for 10 years.

I've seen a variety of promising technologies either drop out of use, or only partially fullfil the promises that seemed likely at the beginning. History teaches us to temper our optimism. (edit: I might add that there are also likely to be issues that neither of us have thought that will also limit its deployment).

It will take a number of years to pan out either way.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Wobs

This seems to be the crux of the issue. You're not going with the real world, as there is no evidence to suggest that the growth will continue at the current pace for 10 years.

I've seen a variety of promising technologies either drop out of use, or only partially fullfil the promises that seemed likely at the beginning. History teaches us to temper our optimism. (edit: I might add that there are also likely to be issues that neither of us have thought that will also limit its deployment).

It will take a number of years to pan out either way.

I never said growth would remain at the same pace. I indicated that growth would be strong. It could be more or less but strong. Real world views indicate that. I'm echoing those sentiments of real world views. There is plenty of evidence to suggest growth will be strong. There is little evidence to suggest otherwise. That is the real world.

There are invariably always issues seen and unseen, that limit near everything in this world, that is a given regardless of technology. There is a limit to fresh air, there is a limit to supply of fossil fuels at affordable cost, there is a limit to pollution that life on the planet can take, there are limits to everything, but that doesn't tell us much if they are unseen, but that dilema is not unique to any technology.

[Wobs]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

I never said growth would remain at the same pace. I indicated that growth would be strong.

But earlier wrote:

Clearly the base is low for Solar Thermal CSP. It's just taking off. However, the growth rate of Solar PV is very significant ( around 40% in 2008 ). We are essentially seeing plant output capacity double every couple of years. So long as demand is there and fossil fuels prices are high as they are today, this growth is expected to continue. Solar Thermal CSP is at a lower base at present, but it is also projected to have strong growth well into the future. As I said before, as these technologies improve, their costs come down and the cost of sun remains at zero.

You have given zero indication that growth will slow. Therefore you have indicated that the growth will either remain the same, or increase. To start by stating current growth rates, and giving no indication that it will slow, one cannot make any conclusion from other than the market will continue to grow at those rates or greater.

Its issues like this that are the course of my complaints of your over positive remarks.