Photovoltaic production rose 50% in 2007

[draypoker]

SOLAR CELL PRODUCTION JUMPS 50 PERCENT IN 2007

Jonathan G. Dorn

Production of photovoltaics (PV) jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007, up an estimated 50 percent over 2006. At the end of the year, according to preliminary data, cumulative global production stood at 12,400 megawatts, enough to power 2.4 million U.S. homes. Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each year since 2002, PV production has been doubling every two years, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy source...

For entire text see http://www.earthpolicy.org/Indicators/Solar/2007.htm
For data see http://www.earthpolicy.org/Indicator.../2007_data.htm

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by draypoker

That's very impressive, particularly when you consider that the annual electricity consumption growth rate, appears to be well under 5% for most nations. It would be interesting to plot these growth rates and total gigawatts of global electrical consumption and production on a spreadsheet and view the graphs. It could be interesting to see where the figures may cross over at some future point in time.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/electricity.html

Good to see that the reputed silicon shortages aren't slowing down production too.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

That's very impressive, particularly when you consider that the annual electricity consumption growth rate, appears to be well under 5% for most nations. It would be interesting to plot these growth rates and total gigawatts of global electrical consumption and production on a spreadsheet and view the graphs. It could be interesting to see where the figures may cross over at some future point in time.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/electricity.html

Here's an attempt to do that.....
But please note that this is a bit of an academic comparison for a few reasons. The production of PV cells by years, or cumulatively by power, is not the same as installed power output. I have applied a utility factor of 0.25 to declared current capacity and to future production and a 50% growth rate for new production.
Calculated on that basis, the figures would cross over in about two decades assuming the growth rates remain unchanged.
Enough of the caveats.....this a graph of it.

[LMagic007]

Hey Besoeker thanks for your effort there. That's interesting to see. Did you use 5% for electricity consumption growth ? Obviously it won' account for night capacity and demand that wont be filled by solar, but its still interesting to see.

Hopefully new energy storage methods will have emerged by then, so that solar can be stored in one form or another, for later daily use in non sunlight hours. Thus by about 2030 the world may have moved to a new global energy base. Hopefully with a few more technology improvements, the cost of solar and other renewables can fall even further, possibly even accelerating that installed growth.

I came up with similar projections but this includes solar and solar thermal combined. It's based on a 2% annual grid growth and 35% capacity expansion for solar PV and Thermal also factoring capacity factors for grid (85%), PV(25%) and thermal(75%) It's just a rough nock up though. No discounting obvious future uncertainties.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Hey Besoeker thanks for your effort there. That's interesting to see. Did you use 5% for electricity consumption growth ? Obviously it won' account for night capacity and demand that wont be filled by solar, but its still interesting to see.

You're welcome. Yes, I made the growth rate 5%.

[LMagic007]

I wonder if the year 2030 global CO2 emissions projection factors in this growth rate for solar power ? I mean we are currently around 25 billion tonnes per annum of CO2 emissions globally and they projected around 40 billion tonnes by 2030.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

I wonder if the year 2030 global CO2 emissions projection factors in this growth rate for solar power ? I mean we are currently around 25 billion tonnes per annum of CO2 emissions globally and they projected around 40 billion tonnes by 2030.

Possibly so.
An increase from 25 to 40 bn T over the next 23 years is a growth rate of just 2% a year which is significantly lower than the rate of increase of power consumption.

[LMagic007]

See also;

Solar Energy: PV Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007

http://seekingalpha.com/article/5858...ercent-in-2007


keywords: solar cell PV energy power electricity growth rate output annual yearly per annum cells production manufacturing watts killowatts megawatts gigawatts w kw me gw increase plot curve graph global % percent percentage terms real absolute

[screener]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Hey Besoeker thanks for your effort there. That's interesting to see. Did you use 5% for electricity consumption growth ? Obviously it won' account for night capacity and demand that wont be filled by solar, but its still interesting to see.

Hopefully new energy storage methods will have emerged by then, so that solar can be stored in one form or another, for later daily use in non sunlight hours. Thus by about 2030 the world may have moved to a new global energy base. Hopefully with a few more technology improvements, the cost of solar and other renewables can fall even further, possibly even accelerating that installed growth.

It might lead to international exchanges of daytime electricity for night time power, from sun belt regions to areas with more hydro power for example, Possibly we could see cheaper electricity in daylight hours, It's interesting times.