The population explosion: visualised

[August]

YouTube - Fugees - Family Business

Fugees | Family Business lyrics

These days its hard for we to find peace of mind
Between insanity and sanity there lies a thin line.
Some dwell in hotels with jezebels
A stone age and fall a victim to the plague
Unclean bad dreams of wyclef being a fiend,
One last kiss from my sweet serpentine
Eliminate then break,
Navigate to rejuvenate thoughts of suicide with my nickel plate.
Reconcilation came from my enemy-friend
Who said family dont bend
We stay silent till the end.
Now who would think that your best friend
Would be your worst enemy and your enemy your best friend.
Stare into the air inspiration from the atmosphere
I think of old ghosts, that aint even here.
Like alex haley take notes on this biography
My family tree consists of street refugees (not quite, but hell: mine is a working and lower middle class family background, anyway) ...

YouTube - Rage Against The Machine: Settle For...

Now, my family is not behind me, so I guess I can only say that I'm not worthy and that Rage Against The Machine got it absolutely correct in Settle For Nothing: "Yes, I dwell in Hell, but it's a Hell than I can grip. I tried to grip my family, but I slipped. ... So read my writing on the wall. No one's here to catch me when I fall." Now, I know that my family is never going to get behind me at anything. They will never believe that hospital and government workers can do evil things, either deliberately or at the heat of a moment, and they need merely take a quick look at our family history, and find enough schizophrenic people in order to support the claim that madness is in my genes. So bye-bye, eh. I'm lost, and freedom, hehh! According to Kris Kristofferson, it's just another word for nothing left to lose; and here I am, having lost them all.

GRIND! GRIND! GRIND! -- Wobs is equally correct now as he was before: I'm a moaning machine, ... and I'm not proud of it. It's just that it was my destiny to fall into some Ibsenesque trap, in which the evil deeds of powerful people and social structures are not at all unknown to anyone. Henrik Ibsen wrote that the biggest of all evil was that of controlling a man's destiny; only surpassed by that cruellest of all sins which would be that of ruthlessly murdering the love life in a person (another Ibsen quote): Henrik Ibsen was quite a playwright, you see: always on the look-out for problems pertaining to the soul, both of individual persons and social systems: a true hero of mine, and an extremely important role model in terms of my own writing.

Ah, nyah. What a life.

[August]

Forfi,

Thank you. You just provided me with a little boost of self esteem. That may be needed, even if I don't know. I don't know. I'm from Barcelona. GRIND! - "Bar: See Loner" - GRIND! GRIND! GRIND! -

[Richard]

Originally Posted by August

Hm. I’m dreaming. ‘Cause the fact are clear and simple. We are heading for a future of either mass death due to the fact that we are soon reaching all sorts of tipping points, or to continued population growth which will take us to the opoint when we reach the 9 billion mark or more. My little piece of maths really says it all:

Maths don't matter?

The most interesting thing is what is happening at the bottom of the page (when the population explosion takes off for real). here I am counting generations from a thought-up starting point of 500.000 people. After 16 generations of three childbirts per woman on average, the population has reached 1 billion. After 20 generations the population has reached 5 billion. We have now reached the point when the population explosion really takes off. In a matter of three generations more, the population has reached 17 billion. It is now heading for thirty billion in no time.

16. — 1.039.998.104
17. -- 1.559.997.000
18. — 2.339.000.000
19. — 3.500.000.000
20. — 5.300.000.000
21. — 7.900.000.000
22. — 11.800.000.000
23. — 17.800.000.000

The rate of global population growth is slowing down though, especially in the developed world. UN projections put the peak global population at between 10-15 billion, depending upon assumptions. You can't assume indefinite exponential growth (which is what you've done there).

[August]

I'm not assuming indefinite exponential growth. What I do assume though, is that humanity as a whole would not like to reach anywhere near a tipping point in terms of absolute numbers, as that is going to be an experience both bloody and smelling nasty. -- - But maths are maths. -

If we should continue to allow for an average of 2.7 child-births per woman, we are going to meet up with that tipping point. I only suggest that people should honour the maths of the matter. And that women should give birth no more than a couple of times each.

But the opposite is the going policy of our times. I just read that China is going to move away from their 1-child-per-family policy and allow for renewed growth of its population.

[Trinifar]

Originally Posted by August

I just read that China is going to move away from their 1-child-per-family policy and allow for renewed growth of its population.

Wow, where did you read that? Bad news indeed for an vastly overcrowded country.

[Skeptic]

Good detailed information on population growth is available from the United Nations web site.

United Nations Population Information Network (POPIN)

Population growth is definitely slowing and in a big way! Third world countries 50 years ago had fertility at 5.5 (that is, each woman on average had 5.5 kids). Today it is 2.5 and dropping. The UN projects population will increase to about 9 billion or close, and then start falling.

Populations in many developed countries are already falling. eg. Italy and Japan.

[Richard]

Originally Posted by August

I'm not assuming indefinite exponential growth. What I do assume though, is that humanity as a whole would not like to reach anywhere near a tipping point in terms of absolute numbers, as that is going to be an experience both bloody and smelling nasty. -- - But maths are maths. -

If we should continue to allow for an average of 2.7 child-births per woman, we are going to meet up with that tipping point. I only suggest that people should honour the maths of the matter. And that women should give birth no more than a couple of times each.

Most people won't "honour the maths of the matter", that's not at all why population growth is slowing. But it is slowing, which is more important than any abstract mathematical model that you can come up with.

[August]

Well, Richard. I've always said the population explosion is a third world phenomenon and a third world problem, first and foremost. If it remains unchecked, it will cause an enormous lot of problems, first on a local level, and then, due to to an influx of "environmental stress refugees" in the western world and the northern hemisphere. The problem underlying third world population explosion are facts of culture and social policies: problems that can't be done away with over night.

The solution to third world population explosion would, I believe, be an education program covering the maths of the matter and the most probable side effects of overpopulation. -- Now, I'm also thinking of problems like scaricty of land, land erosion, fresh water scarcity, local pollution, deforestation and desertification. As you can understand, this is an issue which cannot be minimized.

[Skeptic]

You can bash your head against the same brick wall a thousand times, and all you get is a sore head! I have pointed out many times that population growth is slowing drastically in the third world (last time in post #16) and will become a reducing population within 40 years, and you get ignored with people still screaming 'population growth'!

The problem of population growth is already being dealt to. It will not be a problem for much longer.

[August]

What on the face of the Earth have I done to deserve this? Mulig

Inspired by Forfi's short comment on the Finland situation, I wrote a piece of prose about my life as a zombie. Not believing that I'll ever recieve a response, I e-mailed the whole thing to the Norwegian Government's Department of Health and Social Security. Here's the opening note (read more under the above link):

- -- - -- - --

IN A WORLD CONSISTING OF CLOSE TO 7 BILLION INDIVIDUAL FATES, WHOEVER CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO ONE MAN?

I seriously don’t know what to make of this. What on the face of the Earth have I done to deserve this? It must be something. It must be the fact that I care too much about other people’s multi billion dollar businesses. Especially in terms of the carbon dioxide emissions that come as a result of other people’s businesses. I should care more about the people whose business is closer to a couple of dollars a day, I guess. This must be it. But not quite it? Because it must be more to it than this? I’m lost for words. It’s a long story, dear lawyer. Are you there?