Please respond to the UK Government's consultation on renewable energy

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

I'm simply not convinced that the data graphs you posted bear any great significance about future HVDC project trends.

You keep repeating this despite the fact that I have said at least ten times that the graph wasn't about the future:

Post #99 - I made no claim that it did.
Post #99 - That's not to say the future trend won't change. In fact, it would be perverse to suggest otherwise.
Post #101 - And I repeat that I made no such claim.
Post #101 - The data doesn't. I made no claim that it does.
Post #101 - It is the complete story to date and it shows trend over the past 60 years or so. Nothing more.
Post #101 - It was not in any way shape or form intended to extrapolate beyond present
Post #103 - All the graph and trendline show is that there is no such tendency currently. That's all it was it showed and that's all it was intended to show.
Post #103 - I specifically commented on trend over the last couple of decades. See post #87.
Post #103 - You might have construed that my data was intended to show future trends. It wasn't.

Anyway, your comment was about raising the bar. Most people would contrue that as meaning achieving something bigger or better like literally raising the bar in a pole-vault. More people taking part in the event but failing to go higher surely wouldn't be considered to be "raising the bar".
By the same token, lower power HVDC stations isn't breaking new ground. It's been done before. More of them is organic growth in the same way that AC transmission is increasing, that fossil-fuelled power generation is increasing, that the number of vehicles on our roads is increasing.......and stuff.

However, if your intended point was just about growth in transmission capacity, maybe you should have said so then rather than now. That you did so now rather than then gives the impression of moving the goalposts.
A good maxim is "Say what you mean otherwise people will think you mean what you say.".

But, if it's "just a bar" mine is an extra cold Guinness. And it's your shout, pal.

Notwithstanding, my very generous offer in post #65 still stands if you wish to take me up on it.
But the clock is ticking........

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Besoeker

You keep repeating this despite the fact that I have said at least ten times that the graph wasn't about the future:

Anyway, your comment was about raising the bar. Most people would contrue that as meaning achieving something bigger or better like literally raising the bar in a pole-vault. More people taking part in the event but failing to go higher surely wouldn't be considered to be "raising the bar".

However, if your intended point was just about growth in transmission capacity, maybe you should have said so then rather than now. That you did so now rather than then gives the impression of moving the goalposts. A good maxim is "Say what you mean otherwise people will think you mean what you say"

No raising the bar as I applied it simply means setting greater expectations. There are greater expectations, the bar is raised with such expectations and we will see if they are met and the bar is traversed, over the coming years heading toward 2020 / 20% renewable energy mandates and proposed concepts such as DESERTEC and EU-MENA that clearly raise the bar. In your pole volt analogy, raising the bar offers no guarantee it will be jumped. You seem to be overly adventurous with your hypothesising about what I actually meant by the term raising the bar. My intended point is as it reads, nothing more nothing less as per below quote excerpt.

Originally Posted by LMagic007
Indeed, indeed there appears a tendency to raise the bar with HVDC project proposals

As you suggested;

Originally Posted by Besoeker

Here's how HVDC projects have gone over the last few decades. Make of it what you will.

Indeed I did just that. I took your advice. I made of it what I did, as explained as follows;

Your data graph was in direct response to my comment about HVDC project proposals and proposals imply things that are proposed and thus have yet to occur, thus implying a future event. I was talking about the future and your post data and graphs allegedly relating to the past. I maintain my view, that I won't rely on this past data alone, to project upon future proposals. Your response of past data, was a response to my inference of future events. Regardless of whatever you intended by that response, I maintain my view that your past data does not convince me at all about the likelihood of future trends for HVDC projects. Not at all. I've said what I mean nothing more nothing less and no "if"s about it, as you so often seem to suggest.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

No raising the bar as I applied it simply means setting greater expectations. There are greater expectations, the bar is raised with such expectations and we will see if they are met and the bar is traversed, over the coming years heading toward 2020 / 20% renewable energy mandates and proposed concepts such as DESERTEC and EU-MENA that clearly raise the bar. In your pole volt analogy, raising the bar offers no guarantee it will be jumped. You seem to be overly adventurous with your hypothesising about what I actually meant by the term raising the bar. My intended point is as it reads, nothing more nothing less as per below quote excerpt.



As you suggested;



Indeed I did just that. I took your advice. I made of it what I did, as explained as follows;

Your data graph was in direct response to my comment about HVDC project proposals and proposals imply things that are proposed and thus have yet to occur, thus implying a future event. I was talking about the future and your post data and graphs allegedly relating to the past. I maintain my view, that I won't rely on this past data alone, to project upon future proposals. Your response of past data, was a response to my inference of future events. Regardless of whatever you intended by that response, I maintain my view that your past data does not convince me at all about the likelihood of future trends for HVDC projects. Not at all. I've said what I mean nothing more nothing less and no "if"s about it, as you so often seem to suggest.

Buy me a beer at your raised bar. Depending on how far it is raised I might be able to reach it and I might not.
But if it is the same as all the other bars, present and past, it won't be new, and it won't be raised.
Cheers.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Besoeker

Buy me a beer at your raised bar. Depending on how far it is raised I might be able to reach it and I might not.
But if it is the same as all the other bars, present and past, it won't be new, and it won't be raised.
Cheers.

All indications are that the bar is not the same. The DESERTEC and EU-MENA HVDC grid project concepts clearly already raise the bar to a notably higher more significant level. As I indicated, whether these concepts emerge by 2020 to help meet the 20% renewable energy government mandates will remain to be seen. I wont however be surprised if they do jump this bar and meet the challenges that lie ahead. Not surprised at all.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

All indications are that the bar is not the same. The DESERTEC and EU-MENA HVDC grid project concepts clearly already raise the bar to a notably higher more significant level.

Like the Gaza project? It's 1200 kW - the same size as the New Zealand Island built over 40 years ago.
Or there is a Siemens project for about 5,000 MW to be started mid 2010 in China.
It'll be nearly as big as the Foz do Iguaçu to Sau Paulo system which was built about quarter of a century ago.
If we're not doing something that hasn't been achieved before.......

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Besoeker

Like the Gaza project? It's 1200 kW - the same size as the New Zealand Island built over 40 years ago.
Or there is a Siemens project for about 5,000 MW to be started mid 2010 in China. It'll be nearly as big as the Foz do Iguaçu to Sau Paulo system which was built about quarter of a century ago. If we're not doing something that hasn't been achieved before.......

Questions aside, as I indicated, the bar has been raised and it will be interesting to see if the bar is traversed. The DESERTEC and EU-MENA HVDC grid project concepts certainly raise the bar. I certainly wont be surprised at all to see significant HVDC projects emerge as we head toward 2020 with governments 20% renewable energy mandates. Not surprised at all.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Questions aside, as I indicated, the bar has been raised

Then you should have no difficulty in citing the actual capacity of a few proposed projects that will exceed in magnitude any that have gone before.
But you won't.
I can only assume that your seemingly consistent inability to address this specific point is because you can't.
That's not a personal remark. I can't either. But at least I have done a little bit of homework on the subject and I have provided you with quite a lot of specific information.
Maybe you should also and you would be able to reciprocate with equally specific points rather than vague generalisations.
When you do, I'll address them.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Besoeker

Then you should have no difficulty in citing the actual capacity of a few proposed projects that will exceed in magnitude any that have gone before.But you won't.I can only assume that your seemingly consistent inability to address this specific point is because you can't.That's not a personal remark. I can't either. But at least I have done a little bit of homework on the subject and I have provided you with quite a lot of specific information.Maybe you should also and you would be able to reciprocate with equally specific points rather than vague generalisations. When you do, I'll address them.

Assume what you like, as I said the bar has been raised. DESERTEC and EU-MENA concepts clearly raise the bar. Whether that bar will be traversed remains to be seen. I've seen no convincing reason to think such challenges wont be met. Your posted data graph offers me no convincing reason, to think it has any significant relevance to future trends.

[Besoeker]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Assume what you like, as I said the bar has been raised. DESERTEC and EU-MENA concepts clearly raise the bar.

Fine. Cite specifically how the bar has been raised for HVDC projects?

Originally Posted by LMagic007

Your posted data graph offers me no convincing reason, to think it has any significant relevance to future trends.

Read post #111.

[LMagic007]

Originally Posted by Besoeker

Fine. Cite specifically how the bar has been raised for HVDC projects? Read post #111.

Good. I have read your posts and they do not alter my view. I have also explained my reasoning before, so you may refer to my previous posts if you so desire. I have repeated my explanations sufficiently for you to form you own view. Suffice to say I've seen no convincing evidence that shows me the past trends will be continued and that HVDC projects don't have a solid foundation for strong growth. DESERTEC and EU-MENA proposals along with other HVDC projects to be rolled out as the world heads toward 2020 at 20% mandated renewables, clearly raise the bar. Whether the challenge will be met remains to be seen, though I wont at all be surprised to see the bar traversed. Not at all.