Will there be food shortages in the next decade?

[screener]

forfi, I'm not sure what you mean by using S Africa isn't on, the way I read the report, loss of marketing power, increasing competion from the subsidized exports of other nations, and increased costs of production have reduced acreages and amounts of grain grown. Farmers here are facing these same problems, including as you suggest, corruption, ignorance and if I might add another, the centralization of decision making for resource use.

Point was that there are a variety of reasons why food prices are going up.

[forfi]

screener,of course there are many reasons why prices go up world wide,but to use to fantasy situation that exists right across the southern part of Africa can lead to a misunderstanding of the reality that has to be faced.
look up the outputs of Zimbabwe and you could apply the same report and someone somewhere will believe it.
The statement that "farmers have been forced out of growing grains" is misleading .Framers have been forced out of farming,farmers have been forced out of the continent for that matter,many of them ending up impoverished and living in Australia and the UK.What you have left is a handful of demoralised folks who will shortly have their farms confiscated.
Another side to that story is that in Europe many farmers got out of cereals due to the low price paid over the past years.Most of my neighbours did and are in no hurry to rush back in just yet

[screener]

Originally Posted by forfi

screener,of course there are many reasons why prices go up world wide,but to use to fantasy situation that exists right across the southern part of Africa can lead to a misunderstanding of the reality that has to be faced.
look up the outputs of Zimbabwe and you could apply the same report and someone somewhere will believe it.
The statement that "farmers have been forced out of growing grains" is misleading .Framers have been forced out of farming,farmers have been forced out of the continent for that matter,many of them ending up impoverished and living in Australia and the UK.What you have left is a handful of demoralised folks who will shortly have their farms confiscated.
Another side to that story is that in Europe many farmers got out of cereals due to the low price paid over the past years.Most of my neighbours did and are in no hurry to rush back in just yet

I suppose it is just possible there is more to the situation in southern Africa than was reported in the business news I was referring to. I wouldn't want to suggest that any news media article ever gives the full story. All the same, the experiences are very similar to those of farmers all over, as is that of low prices. The question then will be how many of them can be lured back into production by current higher prices.

Many farmers are getting much older than the average age in society and their children have for three generations now been increasingly leaving the farm in their wills to their parents. I don't think that there are many non-farm kids rushing back to the land just at the moment. It looks like higher prices for some time and even then the likelihood of food shortages at the least for the poor and not so poor in the meantime.

[forfi]

Originally Posted by screener

Many farmers are getting much older than the average age in society and their children have for three generations now been increasingly leaving the farm in their wills to their parents. I don't think that there are many non-farm kids rushing back to the land just at the moment. It looks like higher prices for some time and even then the likelihood of food shortages at the least for the poor and not so poor in the meantime.

This is the nub of the problem and it will lead to a loss of basic skills.If you miss a generation on the land then a lot of hard won knowledge is lost.
High prices may make folks think twice about having fancy lawns and start growing their own.

[screener]

I heard a story from one analyst that says Japan has started building up it's grain reserves, someone suggested the word hoarding. China doesn't want food riots just prior to or during the Olympics and has put tariffs on exports, so some se Asia countries may be looking at increasingly expensive grains and other staples.

[forfi]

Yup,I just came across an item the other day that mentioned Thailand as the only Asian country still allowing exports

[sparky]

what is really catching the attention of Goldman Sachs now is the outlook for agricultural prices. Or as Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at the US bank, says with disarming cheer: "We think we could go into crisis mode in many commodities sectors in the next 12 to 18 months . . . and I would argue that agriculture is key here."

FT.com / Markets / Insight - Insight: The next crisis will be over food

[bruce]

The price of a cup of tea is forecast to reach a record high while the cost of a pint of beer could soon hit £4, industry experts warned yesterday.

Cost of a cuppa and beer to soar - Telegraph

[delboy]

LAHORE, March 5: Farmers have rejected the official wheat support price of Rs510 per 40kg and asked the government to build adequate buffer stocks to forestall the crisis feared due to wheat production falling to 20 million tons this year.

Farmers want 100pc raise in wheat price -DAWN - National; March 06, 2008

Not looking so good in Pakistan either.

[delboy]

Some Asian nations have taken action in the face of rising rice prices and debate over food security. India has restricted some rice exports, Indonesia has raised taxes on palm oil shipments, and Malaysia is building up rice stocks.

Rising food prices feed security concerns | csmonitor.com

And another.