EU grain harvest up this year: up 16%

[agent orange]

EU sees good grain harvest, a positive sign for lower food prices
AFP: EU sees good grain harvest, a positive sign for lower food prices

Favourable weather conditions and an increase in the planted area should lead to a total cereals harvest close to 301 million tonnes for this year in the European Union, 43 million tonnes more than in 2007. This represents an increase of 16% on the 2007 harvest and 9% on the past five years' average production. This forecast, published today by the European Commission, is based on an updated analysis by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), using an advanced crop yield forecasting system.

The year 2007 was an exceptional year with high agricultural prices. Reasons for the sharp increase were unfavorable weather conditions in key growing areas, high oil prices and speculation in the agricultural commodity markets. According to the Commission, biofuels, which take up less than 2% of all farm land in the EU, played a 'marginal' role.

The 2008 yield forecast for cereals is 5 tonnes per hectare across the EU and thus significantly higher than last year and the average over the past five years. The total EU27 area used for cereals in 2008 is estimated to have increased by 5 % compared to 2007, due to a 0 % set-aside rate and high cereals prices.

Looking at individual crop figures across the EU27 over the past five years and as of August 5th 2008, the latest yield forecasts show the following trends:

* soft wheat:5.6 t/ha (+4.8%)
* durum wheat: 3.1 t/ha (+12.8%)
* barley: 4.4 t/ha (+5.7%)
* grain maize: 6.9 t/ha (+9.5%)
* rape seed: 2.9 t/ha (-2,1%)
* sunflower: 1.6 t/ha (+1.7%)
* potato: 26.5 t/ha (-1.1%)
* sugar beet: 70.3 t/ha (+19.0%)

The greatest increase is for sugar beet, cultivated mainly in northern Europe, with the main producers Germany and France, which benefited from favourable meteorological conditions, increasing yield forecasts significantly.

Maize yield is expected to be 20.1% higher than last year and 9.5% higher than the past five years' average, with very high yield increases for Romania (+122%), Bulgaria (+193%) and Hungary (+94%), countries that had been suffering from drought last year.