The crop prices thread

[bruce]

We have a thread for the price of oil but with food prices rising so much at the moment I thought it might be interesting to have one for crops too.

The FT has a pretty good page on the latest commodity prices and the following are correct as of today, with the change over the year the percentage figure.

Corn: 489.00 +21.04%
Wheat: 934.00 +94.68%
Soybeans: 1,239.50 +70.50%
Soybean Meal: 336.3 +59.91%
Cocoa: 1,120 +27.56%
Coffee (Robusta): 2,043 +31.21%
Coffee (Arabica): 134.55 +16.19%
White Sugar: 334.40 +0.66%
Cotton: 69.55 +27.03%

[bruce]

Wheat over the past year



Corn



Oats

[UrbanFarmboy]

Supply is remarkably low and population continues to grow. No better time than now to make an argument for biotechnology to increase yields in order to meet the growing demand for food while limiting the loss of virginal land which mitigates global warming.

[screener]

Bruce, what are the figures in the charts from Omega representing? is it stocks and use? prices per ?

Over here any farmers with grain to sell are smiling like I haven't seen in many a year. Prices are really only getting back to the inflation adjusted prices that were around in 1975. When you consider that inflation for farm inputs has been several times that of society in general, grain prices are probably still well below the boom times of the early seventies.

Consumer prices for finished products from grain stocks like chicken legs or bread pastries have continued to keep pace with inflation and over the last few years have leaped ahead of returns to farmers.

[Cricket Tragic]

Costs of foods of all sorts have increased quite dramatically in the past year. Three main causes so far as I can see.

1. Drought in a number of major grain producing areas.

2. Increased demand, particularly from China and India.

3. Increased competition with biofuels.

As long as the legislated demand for biofuels continues in Europe and the US, there will be continuing competition for grain and continuing competition with food keeping prices up.

While prices have been at recent highs, I remember relative food costs being much higher in the 1970s and actual prices being virtually unchanged over the last decade. Our family food bill hardly varied between 1990 and 2005, despite considerable inflation elsewhere. Simply said, returns to farmers over this period had to be reducing. Prices are now returing somewhat in favour of farmers. Good news for farmers, particularly as many have become significantly more effiient in the meantime.

However, higher food prices will be detrimental to the poorest in society. This will have particular knock on effects with increasing prices of fresh foods. The poor will increasing turn to high calorie, low cost foods leading to health problems in the future.

One solution we must invest in is increasing food production from a smaller area of land. Our alternative is to dramatically reduce population. As I am not about to offer to be culled, I will plump for the former option.

[screener]

Cricket Tragic, Are you including land degradation as your fourth reason for recent and future food price increases, just from your suggestion that we should be trying to grow more from less land. I think it's a good inclusion. Farmers have been tempted to harvest their soil rather than maintain it, because of the low value placed on farm production. Then there is still urbaanization etc. but I have seen figures that about 37% of the earths land mass is used in agriculture now. That still leaves other land for people determined to live in an urban/suburban setting.

Fresh food is not generally the most expensive of what is available, the packaged, processed, preserved food is higher priced here than veggies or butcher shop meat. I think the latter is also better tasting and more nutritious. Even for urban poor there could be good garden space set aside to help with costs. The advantages to weaning us off excessive processing should become evident if prices continue to rise.

[bruce]

I believe it is price and stockpiles in the charts Screener.

Crop prices as of today:

Corn 497.50
Wheat 955.00
Soybeans 1242.00

[bruce]

Also some interesting historical price overviews here http://www.grainwatchdog.com/HomePag...ce_History.htm

[Cricket Tragic]

Originally Posted by screener

Cricket Tragic, Are you including land degradation as your fourth reason for recent and future food price increases, just from your suggestion that we should be trying to grow more from less land. I think it's a good inclusion. Farmers have been tempted to harvest their soil rather than maintain it, because of the low value placed on farm production. Then there is still urbaanization etc. but I have seen figures that about 37% of the earths land mass is used in agriculture now. That still leaves other land for people determined to live in an urban/suburban setting.

No I haven't specifically included this, because these days much more care is being taken to reduce degradation of agricultural land, at least in the more developed nations. Other than rising salinity, there is not that much productive land being taken out of production due to degradation.

In fact, more productive land has probably been lost to urbanisation than degradation over the last few decades.

Originally Posted by screener

Fresh food is not generally the most expensive of what is available, the packaged, processed, preserved food is higher priced here than veggies or butcher shop meat. I think the latter is also better tasting and more nutritious. Even for urban poor there could be good garden space set aside to help with costs. The advantages to weaning us off excessive processing should become evident if prices continue to rise.

My own observations are that the price of fresh produce is rising faster than the price of processed foods. One can still buy McDonalds pretty cheaply, but fresh vegetables and meat have more than doubled in price over the past few years. The economies of scale inherent in processing allow prices to remain lower.

Gardens for the poor might be an admiral idea if you are interested in social engineering. However, as has been consistently demonstrated, such schemes often fail. There are several reasons including the lack of ownership leading to lack of interest on the part of those who are involved in the scheme. This has been amply demonstrated by the failure of the Communist experiment around the world. The alternative to communal gardens is private ownership. Because land has increasing value, those less well off will be less and less able to purchase on the market. If you provide the land for free, you change the value of land elsewhere and simply encourage corruption.

[screener]

Bruce. This is the market price as of the old Winnipeg Commodities Market, The newly bought subsidiary ICE Canada.


ICE Futures Canada Ready to Provide Much Needed Price Transparency for International Barley Market Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Honourable Gary Ritz, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board is calling for "accurate and transparent price signals" for barley in Canada. This can only be achieved by allowing market participants access to a fair, open and regulated futures marketplace, upon which spot and forward cash markets can be based. more...

ICE Reports on December and Year End Volumes Thursday, January 03, 2008
Click here for the official press release document more...

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange to Become ICE Futures Canada Monday, December 31, 2007
Click here for the official press release document more...

Real-Time Nearby Quotes - Quotes will not be displayed after Feb. 28
Commodity Contract Code Status Open
Canola Mar-08 RSH8 Open 566.9 9
Feed Wheat Mar-08 WWH8 Open 224.0
Western Barley Mar-08 ABH8 Open 202.6



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These are the prices that I am hearing about here, What is the FT quoting for volumes or conditions of sale that warrant those prices?