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An oil & gas Shangri-la in the Arctic? | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
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It is remarkable how little information1 the USGS provides about how they got their East Greenland results. There is no easily available document that provides a detailed description of their methodology. Slide #7 in their East Greenland Shelf: Protoype for the USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal presentation (flash file) states that it was not possible to do a discovery history analysis, prospect counting, or reservoir modeling because "assessment techniques are limited in unexplored basins." What's left? A geologic synthesis and analog modeling. The precise meaning of these phrases is not clear. Slide #8 gives a flow diagram of equally vague terms.
It is important to provide an easy way to evaluate the USGS methodology. The gold rush in the Arctic is on. These USGS estimates will be cited for many years to come in order to justify all sorts of stunts or boondoggles—or worse. Omitting the documentation discourages independent evaluation of how these speculative numbers were arrived. If the numbers are hard to evaluate, then it is more likely that the USGS estimates will be reified, i.e. regarded or treated as if they have concrete or material existence. That's exactly what happened with the apocryphal "25 percent" number that surfaces in press accounts. The USGS estimates do not have a meaning independent of the theoretical framework that was used to calculate them.