Ward's look at cause of global warming

[wardengineering]

Even the distant small planet Mars can cause a bump as the Moon sails past.
M3.4 2008/03/14 00:39:06 41.147N 114.943W NNE of Wells, NV

[Wowbagger]

Why don't you post all the earthquakes that don't correlates with conformations of higher gravitational forces?

When the planets at their farthest distance from earth, is their no earth quakes or less earthquakes happening? If you can't answer that, then nothing you've said mean anything really.

[wardengineering]

4000 years of peaks of global cooling

The Kenny Roger’s song “The Gambler” had the lyrics “you got to know when to hold them, and when to fold them.”

That is the way of the Earth. During periods of global cooling the Earth knows when to hold the seismic and weather activities in abeyance and during global warming periods to let them go.

As far as I know, there is no other tool that can give one a reliable sense of what caused the global phenomenon of the past or future as I have shown in these essays. The theories I have presented give a good account of when and where earthquakes are likely to occur and why weather patterns take the path they do.

The planet Earth has a rhythm of global cooling and global warming on the order of about 1000 years.
The 1000 years period is broken by blocks of 60 years rhythms of increasing and decreasing magnitudes. Within the major 60 year periods there are smaller peaks on a 20 years rhythm, all of which are interrupted by lows of global warming of about the same magnitude.

The migration of Cod in the waters from The Shetland Islands to Greenland indicate a temperature change in the ocean of at least 2 degrees moving back and forth from global warming to global cooling and back to global warming. Global warming has returned to Greenland as the Cod industry is flourishing as well as tourism.

The salmon in the waters of the Pacific ocean along the west coast of North America have moved north almost 1000 miles.

These temperature changes are equally prevalent throughout the world. The only difference is the differential between land and water. Both are heated or cooled from the liquid core below.

Glaciers advance in each of the blocks of rising 60 years rhythm of the Jupiter system of force(Josf) for about 360 years, hold that strength for about 360 years and retreat for about 360 years. Tucked within the 60 years are 20 years rhythm of lesser peaks and always similar low Jsof values in each of the valleys. Earthquakes and volcanoes abound as the Josf retreats. Weather patterns follow the Moon system of force and are more severe during global warming periods.

During the millennium of 1000BC to 1BC, the cooling period began in July, 752Bc with a Jupiter system force (Jsof) of 131.

By December, 502Bc the Jsof had risen to 2021. It stayed above 2000 until October 144BC, then dropping to a low of in June, 104AD at Josf 116. There is little or no history for the period.

There would have been colder temperatures for the winter of 502BC with Jsof at 2021, the summer of 442BC at 2041, the winters of 382BC at 2066, then the peak of 323BC at 2092, and 203BC at 2051 and then global warming began in earnest to the low in June 104AD of Josf 116.

During the millennium of 1AD to 1000AD the cooling period began with a Jupiter force system of 116, June 104AD and rose to Josf 2007, September 471AD. It stayed above 2000 through April 531AD at 2053, to peak November 590AD at 2059,conyinuing to stay above 2000 through July 650AD at 2040, January 710AD at 2026, September 769AD at 2015, then began the down hill slide of global warming falling to December 1057AD at Josf 138.

From !AD to !000AD, there were more world history of plagues, earthquakes and floods during the global warming periods.

During the millennium of 1000AD to 2000AD, the cooling period began December 1057AD with a Jupiter system of force at 138 and rose to January 1445AD at 2044. It stayed above 2000 through August 1504AD at 2025, April 1564AD at 2027 and peaking July 1623AD at 2049, then began the global warming slide to November 2009AD at 144.

Seven of the top ten worst world disasters recorded from flooding and earthquakes occurred when the Jupiter system of force was below 339. Five major earthquakes with death tolls over 200,000 occurred when the Jsof was below 362.

During the next millennium of 2000AD to 3000AD the cooling period will begin November 2009 with at Jupiter force system of 144. But, unlike the past millennium, the highest Jupiter system of force will stay below 1670 with the same 20 years rhythm of lesser peaks. until November 2119 with a Josf of 1833, then rising to Josf 2004 May 2358. It will stay above 2000 through January 2418 at Josf 2021, peaking August 2477 with Josf 2022, then beginning the global warming slide to January 2964 with a Josf 124.

Comparing the evidence of the Jupiter system of force with events of the last millennium with the next millennium will allow a forecast of major destructive earthquakes and destructive weather, both drought and storm, around the world.

[wardengineering]

Solar activity from now to 2012

National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientisrs have reported that a new 11-year cycle of heightening solar activity showed signs of beginning when the cycle’s first sunspot appeared in the Sun’s Northern Hemisphere.

“The sunspot is an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years,” said solar physicist Douglas Blesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. In this case, it is the first alert for solar activity and its effects on Earth. The new 11-year cycle is expected to reach maximum by 2011 or 2012.

Last year, I published an article on the environment site that discussed the reasons there is an 11-year cycle of sunspots. In the article, I quoted an article by Curt Suplee published in the July 2004 issue of National Geographic. One topic was “Why do sunspots fluctuate in 11-year cycles, and what effect does this have on terrestrial climate?” “Every 11 years, the sun reverses its overall magnetic polarity: Its north magnetic pole becomes a south pole and visa versa. So a complete magnetic solar cycle - returning to its initial orientation - actually lasts an average of 22 years.” “---there’s evidence that sunspot cycles have direct consequences for human life.” The sun’s luminosity is actually greater when there are more sunspots, because their magnetism creates extra-bright area called faculae. No scientist has explained why this phenomenon takes place.

This information is consistent with the theories I have developed from the study of the stress building and stress releasing calculations developed from my solar program.

Jupiter has a repeating cycle of 11.862 years and passes the star Kaus Borealis once during each 11 Earth years during each cycle. The reason for that is it takes Earth one year and one month to catch the intersection with the Jupiter-Sun axis. Thus it takes 11 Earth years for Jupiter and sun to join each other in the same window of the sky with the star Kaus Borealis on December 27.

The planets Jupiter and Saturn pass each other on a 19.859-year rhythm, and would appear in the same window as mentioned and would account for the average of 22 years rather than the precise 11 years for Jupiter to be in the same window. The magnitude of the 22 years force is modulated by the rhythm of many planets. For example Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune meet ae a 22.58-year rhythm, and Uranus is added on a 22.46-year rhythm. The rhythm of these planets effects each other and the Sun. The solar system of force measurement is audited by my solar system program.

What happens to the planets happens to the sun and what happens to the sun happens to earth and what happens to earth happens to all planets.

The same Jupiter system of stresses of force that apply to earth are the same forces that apply to the sun with the same reactions and with the same global warming and cooling features as with earth. However, there is one major difference between the two bodies. The Earth stores latent heat which changes the state of the rock to liquid during force building and releases the heat during force releasing changing the liquid back to rock. The heat changes in the Sun may be mostly specific heat which raises and lowers the temperature of the fluid.

The change of surface plates on the surface of Earth changes the polarity. This is brought about by two actions of the solar system. The Sun retards the spinning of the liquid core which drags the surface plates westerly moving back and forth across the equator. The most powerful is the rotation of the Moon. It also drags the surface plates mostly in a westerly direction through its 27.3 days orbit acting on the center of mass of the liquid core, but it also is giving the Earth’s surface plates a counter clockwise movement as it moves easterly along the Earth-moon orbital path. Both gravitational forces of the Sun and Moon act on Earth similar to a coin spinning on a flat surface. Each holds the liquid core in a powerful grip with a cone of force with a 3000 miles base and a lever arm the length of the distances from each body to Earth.

The planets are acting on the Sun with the gravitational forces as well. In this case the cone of force has a base of 36,000 miles and lever arms the distance to each planet. Individually they may not amount to much, but the collective system of the Jupiter force along the Jupiter-Sun axis can not be dismissed. Jupiter mass is 314 times the mass of Earth. The Sun mass is only 750 times the mass of the Jupiter system.

My solar program shows historic dates similar to the year 2012 have occurred in 876, 896, 920, 977, 995, 999, 1017, 1137, 1156, 1174, 1609, 1613, 1695, 1712, 1733, 1788, 1833, 1873, 1908, 1911, 1929,and 1967, 2012.

[spot1234]

Any chance you will round this up? come to some conclusions?

[wardengineering]

Earth, Sun and Moon
Rhythms of Life: The Biological Clocks that Control the Daily Life of Every Living Thing is a book written by Russell G. Foster and Leon Kreitzman. In this fascinating book, Russell Foster and Leon Kreitzman explain the significance of the biological clock, showing how it has played an essential role in the development of life on Earth.

The Rhythms of Life gives an interesting look at the physics of Earth from my limited point of view.

The information contained in Foster’s book solidified many of the conclusions I have formed about natural forces created by the total solar system on such things as weather, earthquakes, volcanic eruption and global cooling and warming.

In order to understand that system I had to invent some new ideas as to what causes the Earth to do certain things. I understood my ideas were radical compared to the accepted theories.

One of the nice things about being an engineer is we tend to keep things as simple as possible. We probably invented the term KISS meaning keep it simple stupid. One has to be able to estimate the solution to a physical problem in his head so that he doesn’t get carried away with factors that produce errors 100 times the correct solution.

A search on the internet, showed the Earth is slowing at the rate of 0.000012 seconds per year. Accepting this and the reported age of Earth at 4.5 billion years meant that the length of day was 15 hours shorter than the present 24 hour-day or 9-hour days with each hour of change representing 0.3 billion years(3600/0.000012=0.3 billion) of time.

The authors reported the Cyanobacteria was found as a fossil in rock. The rock was measured between 3 and 3.5 billion years ago. Accepting an average date for the Cyanobacteria as 3.25 billion years, one can calculate the length of the day at the time, 3.25/0.3=11 hours. 24-11=13 hour day. This estimate of the circadian rhythm of the Cyanobacteria is close enough to the reported rhythm by Foster to conclude the Earth has been slowing at a constant rate from the time rock could be measured for age.

The Earth size must have been consistent with the day length and could be used to gage the size of Earth through time: the length of time being proportional to the diameter of Earth and its distance from the Sun. I assumed the entire solar system was gaining mass equally from space.

Comparing the present size of Earth on a 24 hour day with the earlier day length of the Cyanobacteria, the Earth diameter would have been 7926 divided by 24 times 13 or 4293 miles diameter. The Moon would have been 1179 miles diameter, distance from Earth 122,000 miles. Distance from Earth to Sun, 50.4 million miles. The sun size was 52,000 miles in diameter.

The Cyanobacteria was reported to be found in shallow water in layers of algae. Using the idea that water was produced from original rock from space means the Earth had sufficient size to produce water from the heat of the density of mass. As the material accumulated, the Earth would have begun the building of a liquid core and the separation of water. At 3.25 billion years there was enough water on the surface for the bacteria habitat.


The present diameter of Mars is 4150 miles with neither water nor a magnetic field. This is consistent with my earlier conclusion that Mars has not accumulated enough rock from outer space to melt the interior to differentiate the rock and thus bring water to the surface or form a magnetic field. Using Mars as the criteria for the size of Earth with no water, the Earth would have had an 11.4 hour day. 24-(4150/7926*24)=11.4 or 3.8 billion years ago. From that date to the time of the Cyanobacteria is about 520 million years

From that early date of 4.5 billion years ago I have assumed the Earth was rotating without a tilted axis. Once water was formed at the time of the Cyanobacteria, the Sun, Moon and Venus would have had the mechanism to change its axis to the present tilt of 23.5 degrees.

The Moon perigee would have fallen on the new Moon position at the December 21 solstice. The retarding force of the Moon would have begun the gradual tilt of the Earth and the advancing of the Moon. The Sun would have had the same effect on Earth from day one and its perihelion and aphelion remained the same throughout time.

The human sleep rhythm of 16 hours with 8 hours asleep and 8 hours awake made the diameter of Earth 5284 miles, 2.4 billion years ago. The tilt of the Earth would have been 15.8 degrees. The Earth year would have been 243.0 days.

Venus grew with lighter material and lacks the density of mass to create enough heat for a liquid core. The orbit of Venus is almost circular and comes closer to Earth than any other planet. The force between Earth and Venus acted to cause the mass of Venus to migrate toward Earth much like the Moon so that Venus would face the Earth as it flew by on December 21 each year causing Venus to rotate backward with a 243 days rhythm.

The north-south axis of the Earth remains parallel with the Earth-Sun axis at both summer and winter solstice. This feature results in the Earth making one complete turn with respect to the Sun each year.

From perihelion to aphelion back to perihelion the zenith of the Son moves over the Earth’s surface from latitude 23.5° south to latitude 23.5° north dragging the liquid core N66.5°E for 6 months and then S66.5°W for 6 months. All the time this is going on, the zenith of the Moon is dragging the liquid core 5° north and south of the Sun’s track while circling the Earth 360° every 28 days (varying from 25 days to 28.5 days) and advancing the zenith of its perigee forward around the Earth on an average of 1.5° each Moon period taking 18.6 years to complete its circuit.

All of the planets act to modulate the force being applied by both the Moon and the Sun on the liquid core. The surface crust is moving faster than the liquid core thus applying a dragging force on the surface crust in the opposite direction. Therein lay the distribution and timing of earthquakes, volcanoes and weather and the timing and intensity of global cooling and global warming.

[wardengineering]

The challenge to the world is to provide water -- a clean, reliable supply -- to protect the health of the people and their economy.

In the 1960s, when the California State Water Project was under construction, California Department of Water Resources Director William E. Warne noted, "California's destiny is never, so long as the state grows, to resolve her water problem, but always to work at it." This is the same observation for the world population to take heed. The world population will continue to grow and every government needs to make long term plans for the development of water.


Global warming is here to stay for at least 150 years and to think otherwise is emulate the ostrich “head in the sand” syndrome.

Those communities depending on runoff from snow covered mountain sources will experience greater snowfalls but faster runoff. Their need will be to build reservoirs to store the water before it escapes to the oceans.

The most reliable source of water is the ocean. In California all development in coastal cities should be required to replenish their water supplies from the ocean and not from aqueducts transporting water from runoff from the Sierra Mountains.

This will become a political battle since Los Angeles carries the most political weight in California and the most demand for water from the Sierra Mountain resource. If Los Angeles was a separate country, there would be reason for war, with those that lack, taking away from those who have.

Los Angeles has already shown how to use their political influence. In 1905, Los Angeles began taking water from Inyokern area by buying Owens Valley water rights in 1905 and having the U.S. Congress appropriate funds for the construction of the Los Angeles aqueduct in 1907. Imagine having the political power to tax the whole United States for one city’s growth needs.

The green house gases are only local health problems and have infinitesimal effect on either weather of global warming. Moneys spent trying to protect a changing environment is foolhardy and wasteful. Species will disappear and third world countries will watch millions of their people die. Their only hope is magnanimous countries to come to their aid. The past scenario has been the protection laws that keep undesirable from the neighborhood.

The greatest and most urgent need for the world population is to recognize that water supplies dependent on precipitation will suffer the most and those communities that use the ocean as a supply of water will have the most political power as well as the most useful manpower to impose their will.

[wardengineering]

FOURTEEN DEADLY TORNADOES IN INDIANA

Of the fourteen reported tornado events involving multiple deaths in Indiana, only one occurred in November as the Earth was moving toward the December 21 solstice. The remaining events occurred as the Earth was moving toward the June solstice. Six occurred in March, four occurred in April, two in May and one in June. This suggests March is the most dangerous with diminishing force to June.

There are several reasons for the cluster near the March 21 equinox. First, is the movement of the Earth away from the Sun, which is an annual period of global warming and second, the most rapid movement of change. The same rapid movement occurs during the September 21 equinox but the movement is toward the Sun and the December 21 solstice, which is an annual period of global cooling.

I use my solar program for research of weather events as well as seismic and volcanic events. The Jupiter system of force (JSOF) is the most dominate system that controls the activity of the three events. The following dates show the effect of the Jupiter system of force and the years between events. In a later essay I will analyze the two most destructive tornados to show the involvement the other systems of force.

April 13, 1852: New Harmony - 16 killed - JSOF 171
34 years
May 14, 1886: Anderson - 43 killed - JSOF 286
127 years
March 23, 1913: Terre Haute - 21 killed - JSOF 167
4 years
March 11, 1917: New Castle - 21 killed - JSOF 328
March 23, 1917: New Albany - 45 killed - JSOF 352
3years
March 28, 1920: Allen through Wayne counties - 39 killed by three tornadoes - JSOF 1265
2 years
April 17, 1922: Warren through Delaware counties - 14 killed JSOF - 1583
3 years
March 18, 1925: "Tri-State Tornado", Posey, Gibson and Pike counties - 74 killed - JSOF 411
23 years
March 26, 1948: Coatesville destroyed - 20 killed - JSOF 217
1 year
May 21, 1949: Sullivan and Clay counties - 14 killed - JSOF 194
16 years
April 11, 1965: "Palm Sunday Outbreak", 11 tornadoes, 20 counties - 137 killed - JSOF 268
9 years
April 3, 1974: "Super Outbreak", 21 tornadoes hit 39 counties - 47 killed - JSOF 200
16 years
June 2, 1990: 37 tornadoes hit 31 counties - 8 killed - JSOF 157
5 years
Nov. 7, 2005: Vanderburgh and Warrick counties - 22 killed - JSOF 285

[wardengineering]

AOpinion:
Learning from our arid past
More droughts, less water -- our future depends on adapting to scarcity.
Los Angeles Times – 4/29/08
By Brian Fagan - emeritus professor of anthropology at UC Santa Barbara and the author of "The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations

One of the downsides to global warming is drought. About 11 million people in northeast Africa alone were in serious danger of starvation in 2006 as a result of drought. The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Nigeria estimates that about 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa -- nearly a third of the population -- will suffer from malnutrition because of intensifying drought by 2010. With continued warming and more droughts on the horizon, we need to learn how to better live with our natural world and its cycles.

Here in the Western United States, it's tree rings that tell us that cycles of wet and dry, warm and cool are the historical reality.

In California, the source is tree stumps in Sierra lake beds. Owens Lake once covered more than 115 square miles at the mouth of the Owens River. The mountain runoff that fed the lake varied dramatically in cycles of wet and dry years. In drier periods, trees grew in the still-moist soil of the receding lake. When the rains came, the trees drowned, leaving stumps as a chronicle of aridity: An epochal drought began before AD 910 and ended about 1100; a wetter century then ensued, when rainfall was higher than in modern times. A second drought started before 1210 and ended 140 years later.

As for the wider West, a grid of more than 600 tree-ring sequences from throughout the region, compiled by a team at the Lamont-Doherty Tree Ring Laboratory at Columbia University, puts today's droughts in perspective. The centuries between AD 900 and 1253 witnessed long dry spells. After 1300, an abrupt change to wetter conditions lasted for 600 years, then gave way to today's aridity. Some people refer to a "mega-drought epoch" 1,000 years ago, when cool, dry La Niña conditions persisted for decades over the eastern Pacific and the winter jet stream stayed well north of what is now California.

None of today's droughts approach the intensity and duration of the medieval ones. The six-year California drought that began in 1987 resulted in Sierra Nevada runoff that was only 65% of normal. During the great medieval droughts, inflow to Owens Lake is estimated to have been 45% to 50% lower than usual.

Why did the medieval droughts persist so long? Gradually accumulating climatic evidence from around the world is showing that the mega-drought epoch experienced significant warming on a global level, similar to recent conditions. During the 20th century, increased Northern Hemisphere temperatures and unusual warming of the western Pacific and Indian oceans contributed to drought formation over middle latitudes.

How did people survive? A thousand years ago, California's human population was tiny, a scattering of hunters, gatherers and fishermen who adapted effortlessly to long-term drought. They tapped rare permanent water supplies, changed their diet and moved to higher ground. Acorns were a staple; so were sea fish in places such as the Santa Barbara Channel. Survival in some of the toughest landscapes on Earth depended on cooperation, intelligence about water supplies, mobility and flexibility, knowledge of their environment and on taking advantage of all kinds of food resources when they became available. Nevertheless, prolonged aridity must have killed thousands of people in medieval times, from the American West to the Saharan Sahel.

Although today's droughts are minuscule compared with the dry spells of 1,000 years ago, the future is truly frightening. Sophisticated computer models by Britain's Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research predict a 3% to 18% increase in the amount of the Earth's surface that will be exposed to extreme drought by 2100; 40% of the world will suffer from severe drought, up from the current 18%; 50% will suffer from moderate drought. California and other Western states, at the very least, will suffer from severe drought. By 2025, an estimated 2.8 billion of us will live in arid areas like California.

Today, we harvest water on an industrial scale -- from rainfall, from rivers and lakes and from rapidly shrinking water tables. Many of us in California live off what are, effectively, looted water supplies, brought by canal from Owens Lake or the Colorado River or drained from aquifers.

But at best we have accommodated ourselves to nature's fickle realities. Our greatest asset is not necessarily our technology but our opportunism and endless capacity to adapt to circumstances. We must learn from the history of the great droughts and begin to think of ourselves as partners with, rather than potential masters of, the changing natural world.

Brian Fagan is emeritus professor of anthropology at UC Santa Barbara and the author of "The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations."


Fagan’s research shows two droughts periods in California from AD910 to AD1100 and from AD1210 to AD1350. This suggests 100 years of relief in between. The total period from the years listed is 440 years. The Jupiter system of force in AD910 was 1907 and for AD1210 was about 1914. During that period the Jupiter force system dipped to a high of 1712 in AD1008 and remained there to AD1146 before it began climbing to 1914 by AD1210. By AD1325 it had risen to 1945. The same period is comparable to our current global warming condition starting AD1803 with a high of 1400 lasting for 55 years. The trend was toward global warming. In 1861 the Jupiter system of force was 1850 and falling to an extended high of 1731 in AD1981, continuing to 1760 in AD2060 then moving back up to 1882 by AD 2179. By AD2239 the Jupiter force system will reach 1928 and climbing.

As discussed on earlier essays our planet is in an extended global cooling period when the Jupiter system of force remains above 2000 for several hundred years at it will from AD2300 to Ad2600.

Fagan’s characterization of the Earth subject to “nature’s fickle realities” does not see the true cause of Earth’s realities. The constant ebb and flow of the forces produced by the solar system are extremely regular and predictable.

Fagan is not alone in his deficiency in the knowledge of the working of our natural world being controlled by the Sun and the planets. Both the media and the political machines of the world have made it very plain they intend to continue to promote the cause of the global warming dilemma is man made. The poor and the inhabitants of countries like Africa will be victims of our ignorance. How easy it is for ignorance to foster arrogance!

[wardengineering]

RETREAT OF EARTH FROM SUN WITH MOON APPROACHING ALL PLANETS

The number and intensity of earthquakes in Nevada and California have increased since the first of the year with many associated with the speed of the Earth releasing from the Sun through March 21st.
Typically the larger magnitude of the events waits as the Moon approaches a planet and coincides with the passing.

All planets are in a line as the Moon closes in on New Moon and beyond. The planets are strung out visually beginning with the Moon passing Jupiter April 26, 2008 at 1PM, Neptune April 29 at 10AM, Uranus May 1 at 12 noon, Venus May 4 at 10AM, Sun May 5 at 3AM, Mercury May 6 at 12 noon, Mars May 10 at 5AM and lastly Saturn May 12 at 2PM. Pluto was first but always left out of my analysis because of its size and distance.

As examples were the April 30 event M4.2 at 10:AM at Borrego Springs, California and the May 1 event M4.4 at 1:PM at lake Isabella, California.

The passing of Saturn should produce some large events in California and Nevada. Only one appears in the search of my earthquake file: M5.3 March 3, 1949 at Hollister, California.