------ THE SKY IS FALLING ------

[Paradox]

Follow-up to TU24

DATA

[screener]

Wow, inside the moons orbit, Was it George Carlin, the hippy dippy weatherman with the hippy dippy weather man, that suggested that he wouldn't sweat the showers?

[cbacba]

Paradox,

I was thinking there's two events about that time, 28 or 30th. One is a potential impact of mars although it got within a 1 in 17 chance at one time, it looks like that diverged again and is substantially less likely than that. I think it was a hundred ft or hundred meter dia. sized object. That would have been quite interesting to try to view if the impact had been on the visible side as mars is roughly in opposition at the moment and relatively close.

Your tu-24 - sounded first like a russian airliner or a new pharmeceutical - is a different matter. The article states it's expected to whiz by about 1 1/3 the distance to the moon. I recall hearing of something like that a while back and that it might be visible as a moving dot, at least with a small telescope. I don't recall hearing the size of anything other something around 100-150 ft size, probably a few times bigger than the Meteor Crater in AZ that created the mile diameter crater.

My scoop is that this is a common scenario, object comes in (perhaps from the direction of the sun) and is spotted somewhere between a month before it might impact and ten seconds after it impacted the atmosphere. Of course this one won't but there will be a next one. Fortuntely, this scenario is significantly less likely than the one where we see it coming months or years in advance. Also, if it's only a hundred feet across, there exists the prospect of destroying or deflecting it. That starts to disappear as the object size increases by 20 or 30 times or more.

Otherwise, impact is just a matter of time away for something, whether it is seconds or millions of years. Statistically speaking it could be either although it seems the really big ones happen every 60 million years or and we're running on 67 at present. Fortunately, it's all statistical and isn't tied to some crude clock mechanism - like CA's upcoming big one that could happen any time and the tension on the fault material is slowly increasing as time goes by and sooner or later - SPROING - with the liklihood of the later being more energy versus sooner being less energy.

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by cbacba

Paradox,

I was thinking there's two events about that time, 28 or 30th. One is a potential impact of mars although it got within a 1 in 17 chance at one time, it looks like that diverged again and is substantially less likely than that. I think it was a hundred ft or hundred meter dia. sized object. That would have been quite interesting to try to view if the impact had been on the visible side as mars is roughly in opposition at the moment and relatively close.

Your tu-24 - sounded first like a russian airliner or a new pharmeceutical - is a different matter. The article states it's expected to whiz by about 1 1/3 the distance to the moon. I recall hearing of something like that a while back and that it might be visible as a moving dot, at least with a small telescope. I don't recall hearing the size of anything other something around 100-150 ft size, probably a few times bigger than the Meteor Crater in AZ that created the mile diameter crater.

My scoop is that this is a common scenario, object comes in (perhaps from the direction of the sun) and is spotted somewhere between a month before it might impact and ten seconds after it impacted the atmosphere. Of course this one won't but there will be a next one. Fortuntely, this scenario is significantly less likely than the one where we see it coming months or years in advance. Also, if it's only a hundred feet across, there exists the prospect of destroying or deflecting it. That starts to disappear as the object size increases by 20 or 30 times or more.

Otherwise, impact is just a matter of time away for something, whether it is seconds or millions of years. Statistically speaking it could be either although it seems the really big ones happen every 60 million years or and we're running on 67 at present. Fortunately, it's all statistical and isn't tied to some crude clock mechanism - like CA's upcoming big one that could happen any time and the tension on the fault material is slowly increasing as time goes by and sooner or later - SPROING - with the liklihood of the later being more energy versus sooner being less energy.

Hi Cbacba,

It's the size of the Sear's tower! Apparently the concern is of some kind of energy burst as it gets close enough to interact with our planets magnetic field. There has been claims of delayed reports and miscalculations based on its trajectory and Earths gravity... then the whole story just went dark and previous details were erased. Who knows...we will soon enough. It appears to be a hush-hush event and I was hoping you or your fellow 'astronomers' might be in the know. It's probably nothing. Maybe I should stop building my fallout shelter now

~Paradox

[cbacba]

no one i know is paying any attention to it. i'd expect as time gets shorter there will be some who plan on trying to image it. unfortunately, most that i know are in my region and all this cloud cover we've been having is causing us to be dealing with other endeavors. IE, the astronomy labs are indoor events at the present.

[Paradox]

Asteroid To Make Rare Close Flyby Of Earth January 29

[Paradox]

Update: Sunday, Jan 26: A credible source has indicated to me that sensitive equipment is being powered down for TU24 approach. Sensitive data is also being backed up to multiple locations. No chance of impact, but US military wants to 'play it safe' (?) More info to come...

TU24

[treekiller]

Harmless asteroid TU24 passes Earth on the 29th

http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2...nger-to-earth/

Some people exaggerate events (or flat out lie) to predict disaster!

[Windguy]

I'm selling TU 24 insurance. Please send $10 Windguy @ Australia for insurance of death or maiming due to TU 24 with up to $10, 000, 000 payable to you.

[cbacba]

evidently, the big hole in the ground will be the dead KH-11 but that isn't going to have much of an impact compared to a meteor, unless of course it accidently hits manhatten.