------ THE SKY IS FALLING ------

[August]

Originally Posted by Paradox

I'd like to hear some ideas, policies or projects you feel could help expedite a solution to this growing threat call 'climate change'.

Give peace a chance.

[Paradox]

Give peace a chance.

I second that motion!


Sea Surface Temperature Data

Insurers feeling the heat of climate-change losses

[Skeptic]

Paradox.
I accept proper scientific data. I reject speculation and exaggeration.
You, on the other hand, seem to revel in exaggeration. For example, listing increasing volcanic eruptions as a consequence of global warming. Yeah, riiiiight!

The scientific data shows that the world is currently warming at the rate of 0.15 Celsius per decade. Speculation and exaggeration claims that the next 100 years will see a catastrophic increase of (select your model) anything from 2 to 13 Degrees.

The consequences of the real warming is hard to nail down. In the absense of better data, we can only look at history. The world has been through repeated warmings over the past 12,000 years, and several have reached 2 Degrees Celsius more than today. No catastrophe happened. In the absense of better data, I claim that this implies that no catastrophe will happen this time, until warming exceeds 2 degrees.

You will note that, at no time, have I said we should do nothing. I am not an advocate of 'business as usual'. However, I do not see enough short term threat to justify enormously damaging drastic action either. Logic suggests that we should be moving towards the development of new technology that does not produce greenhouse gases. Evolution towards a new energy economy, rather than a revolution that will take many human victims.

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

Paradox.
I accept proper scientific data. I reject speculation and exaggeration.
You, on the other hand, seem to revel in exaggeration. For example, listing increasing volcanic eruptions as a consequence of global warming. Yeah, riiiiight!

Fire and Ice: Melting Glaciers Trigger Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanos

Climate change could cause earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, scientists say

Skeptic,

Ok. Then we have a defined disagreement. I am away from my main computer (out of town) at the moment but would be glad to debate this issue with you upon my return Wed. There is a great deal of science which points to climate related forcings affecting volcanic activity. The news stories I reference above provide a brief overview of a more complex trend.

~Paradox

[Skeptic]

Paradox.
I will have to decline your kind invitation to debate. I am leaving for an extended trip this coming Saturday 2 Sept., and will not be back at my trusty old PC till the end of September.

However, I must repeat, whatever else you can lay at the feet of global warming, vulcanism is not one. In fact, the last 100 years has seen less volcanic activity than the long term average.

[joewp]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

Joe.
Not so. Habitat loss is often quoted as a cause of biodiversity loss, and probably is. However, the scientific evidence for it being a major cause of species extinction is not powerful.

I don't know. Simple made a good presentation above. Your rainforest example is of a large more or less homogeneous ecosystem, and even still 8% species loss was suffed in a few centuries. Anyway, birds are the most adaptible of species in that they can fly to another suitable area. What would happen if the study was of snails, who find it difficult to pick up and leave?

And by the way, I would consider the introduction of a foriegn species into a habitat the effective destruction of that habitat, wouldn't you?

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

However, I must repeat, whatever else you can lay at the feet of global warming, vulcanism is not one. In fact, the last 100 years has seen less volcanic activity than the long term average.

Skeptic,

What part of:

"All over the world evidence is stacking up that changes in global climate can and do affect the frequencies of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and catastrophic sea-floor landslides," says British geologist Bill McGuire, writing in New Scientist magazine.

Don't you understand?

You're the New Scientist fan. Aren't you?

~Paradox

[Skeptic]

Jeowp said :

Your rainforest example is of a large more or less homogeneous ecosystem, and even still 8% species loss was suffed in a few centuries. Anyway, birds are the most adaptible of species in that they can fly to another suitable area. What would happen if the study was of snails, who find it difficult to pick up and leave?

Not so. These were endemic birds. They have had the opportunity over millions of years to move, and had not. However, they survived, I guess, for the simple reason that total habitat destruction did not happen. Indeed, total habitat destruction rarely does happen.

This is not the only example. The Atlantic south American rainforest is another habitat that has been mostly destroyed. Yet few, if any of the animals and plants endemic to that place have gone extinct.

Often people say something has gone extinct due to habitat destruction. However, there is nearly always a more likely alternate explantation. From what I have seen and read, this cause of extinction is a minor one.

Paradox.
I am not sure we should be entering a debate on vulcanism. It has little to do with climate change. Sure, there are people who make outrageous claims. However, they cannot support those claims with empirical evidence.

The only real geological change I know which is likely from climate change is isostatic rebound. This is when the ice on a mountaintop melts. The reduction in weight leads to the mountain itself rising to a small degree in response. This is NOT a cause of vulcanism.

In addition, please note that the frequency of eruptions is currently less than the long term average. Even taking Mt. St. Helens and Pinatubo into account, there have been no major eruptions anywhere in the world in over 100 years. If climate change caused eruptions this is NOT what we would see. A major eruption is more like Krakatoa in 1883.

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

In addition, please note that the frequency of eruptions is currently less than the long term average. Even taking Mt. St. Helens and Pinatubo into account, there have been no major eruptions anywhere in the world in over 100 years. If climate change caused eruptions this is NOT what we would see. A major eruption is more like Krakatoa in 1883.

I'll take the testimony of numerous geologists over your speculation any day. You seem to be backpeddling by lumping volcanism into the 'major eruption' category. Volcanism is very active and remains a growth industry. One that is related to climate change. Our Earths systems are interconnected.

Your arguments lead down the path of least resistence. We have walked this path for the last twenty years and are now facing a dillema. You are part of this dillema whether you like it or not. You seem to insulate yourself from pertinent information by not paying it any mind.

You seem to insulate yourself from pertinent information by not paying it any mind.

Pretending you have a handle on things does not make it so.

~Paradox

You seem to insulate yourself from pertinent information by not paying it any mind.

[Paradox]

Study Provides First-Ever Look at Combined Causes of North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Freshening