------ THE SKY IS FALLING ------

[Twig6]

Originally Posted by Simple

A recent submarine trip has discovered that the arctic is about 40-50% thinning and predictions has been brought forward for the arctic to be ice free in summer by 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is pretty serious news—a huge modification in earlier predictions. Do you have a link/any further information?

[Paradox]

From beneath Antarctica's Ross Sea, scientists retrieve pristine record of the continent's climate cycles

Researchers debate warming, hurricanes

[Series2]

Originally Posted by Twig6

This is pretty serious news—a huge modification in earlier predictions. Do you have a link/any further information?

Global Warming Could Be Worse Than Thought, from MSNBC.

Wadhams and a colleague, Nick Hughes, survived the explosion and managed to preserve their data, which suggest that sea ice in the summer could soon disappear altogether, Britain's ITN Television reported Tuesday.

Scientists had previously predicted that the summer sea ice would disappear from the Arctic by 2040. But Wadhams' measurements indicate that the thinning was already approaching 50 percent and that the ice could disappear by 2020.

Walt Meier, a research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, called Wadhams' 13-year projection "extreme, but not completely implausible," and cautioned that the thinning could simply be the result of "compression of thicker ice into a smaller region."

"It's dangerous to extrapolate into the future, especially from such a short period," Meier told MSNBC.com on Tuesday. While Wadhams' estimates "are not totally out of line with possibility," he added, "my feeling is that estimates of 13 to 20 years for the loss of summer sea ice are overly pessimistic."

Glad to see you're still around, Simple.

[Simple]

Hi skeptic

1900-1940. Although the burning of fossil fuels was commonplace as early as the 1700s, CO2 concentrations were only about 295 parts per million (ppm) by 1900, just 7% higher than pre-industrial levels of 270 ppm. The warming associated with this CO2 increase is considered to be too small to account for the observed warming. However, natural factors, particularly increases in solar radiation and a decline in volcanic activity, are well correlated with temperature over this time period, indicating that the warming was predominantly due to these two factors.

Mann et al 2003.

Hi P, i'll expand on the sun soon, hi series thanks for posting the link.

In 1989, the Marshall Institute released a report arguing that "cyclical variations in the intensity of the sun would offset any climate change associated with elevated greenhouse gases." Although it was refuted by the IPCC, the report was used by the Bush Sr. Administration to argue for a more lenient climate change policy.

Sun 0.12 w/m2 (variance 0.1-0.3w/m2 1000’s years)
GHG 2.4w/m2 (Increased by ~2w/m2 100years)

George C. Marshall Institute has received $630,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

The marshall institute started the sun rumour or propigated it anyway.

[Paradox]

Scientists to track impact of Asian dust and pollution on clouds, climate change:

[Skeptic]

Going back to solar influence.

Since 1976, greenhouse gas increase has correlated better with temperature increase than anything else. However, before that time, solar activity, as shown by the number and activity of sunspots, correlated better than GHGs.

http://web.dmi.dk/fsweb/solarterrest.../welcome.shtml

There are problems when trying to translate solar activity into calculated solar forcings. We still do not know exactly how sunspot activity actually drives warming or cooling. Theories exist, but tend to be controversial. Thus, organisations such as the IPCC who offer calculated solar forcings need to mention that such are extremely uncertain.

I mention this because the IPCC calculated solar forcings do not seem to correlate as well. However, sunspot activity correlation is extremely good, as shown in my reference.

[elephant]

I remain sceptical about the computer models. Basically, forecasts of weather 100 years from now are unlikely to be accurate, given that the best we can manage repeatably is a five-day weather forecast, and weather models are much more complex than environmental models.

Any computer model needs validation against known events - previous weather patterns. The warming up of the earth about 700ad that lasted to 1300ad, with temperatures in England similar to the Loire Valley today, and only trivial human CO2 emmission levels, followed by a change to colder temperatures, would be a good test. If a computer model tracked that period accurately, it would have some validity. Then of course on to Thames "Frost Fairs" in England from 1683 (Thames froze over for two months) which occured spradically until 1814, when England was colder. This was during the early industrial revolution, when CO2 levels were already rising.

Going back further, we have so-called "false ice ages", one only 95 thousand years ago. A "false" ice age is a sudden sharp drop into extreme glacial conditions that doesn't last, but ends after a few thousand years instead of persisting for ten's of thousands of years. This sudden drop from present temperatures into glacial conditions can take as little as 50 years. If the computer model is incomplete it may fail to predict such an event, so in 50 years time we could have a kilometer of ice on top of Glasgow, falling sea levels, and barren and arid tropics, instead of balmy weather and high sea levels. The ice would last for typically five thousand years and destroy human civilisation.

We are presently in a warm spell in the middle of an ice age, and the ice is expected to return one day. A warm (and hence wet) planet supports more life than a cold arid planet. It might be that global warming should be a target.

[Paradox]

Urray-Darling farmers face water shut-off

The game can be over quite quickly...I hope those farmers get some damn rain.

~Paradox

[Paradox]

Sudden sea level surges threaten 1 billion

But he said 10,000 years ago sea levels rose 20 meters in 500 years -- a relatively short span -- after the collapse of the continental ice sheets.

"It can happen in a short period of time if we look at the historical data," Usery said.

Global warming swelling insurance risk

[Twig6]

Thanks for the info Series and Simple.