------ THE SKY IS FALLING ------

[Skeptic]

August.
Your biblical description of people applies to a large part of the population at any time since money was first invented. Nothing unusual there!

Why are governments moving to liquifaction of coal? The rationalisation usually given is to reduce dependency on oil imports. For the USA, for example, they hate depending on OPEC. The other, unspoken, reason is of course money.

[Paradox]

Climate Change - Do you feel lucky?

China says typhoons have left 15 million homeless

[Paradox]

It looks like the Gulf Stream is Grinding to a Halt. Great. Hotter here and soon to be cooling waters up North I am sure.

NEWPORT, R.I. - An unusually large number of tropical fish have been spotted this summer in Rhode Island waters by divers, fishermen and environmentalists.

Among the fish seen so far: juvenile orange filefish, snowy grouper and lookdowns. A local lobsterman pulled up a large trigger fish in one of his traps.

"We're always catching tropicals during the summer months, but I mean there are a lot more. Probably about double the amount," Jean Bambara, an aquarist at Save the Bay's Exploration Center in Newport, told The Providence Journal.

The fish being seen are normally found in the warm waters off the southern states, just like the Portuguese men-of-war that invaded southern New England waters earlier in the summer and the manatee that was spotted this week in Warwick and North Kingstown.

Scientists said a change in the pattern of the Gulf Stream is likely a major reason for the number of warm-water visitors this summer. The Gulf Stream moves north from Florida along the East Coast before turning east toward Europe. Scientists say the turn is usually south of Delaware, but this year it's a more north than usual.

John Torgan, baykeeper with Save the Bay, said the average water temperature of Narragansett Bay has increased three degrees over the past few decades. He said this could cause cold-water species like cod and haddock to move further north and warm-water fish to move in.

"What's different is we've seen warmer water and we're seeing an increased sighting of these rare or accidental species in Narragansett Bay and Rhode Island Sound," Torgan said.

[Paradox]

Deluge Into the North Atlantic

Climate change caused dramatic changes in Antarctica 14 million years ago


Have a nice weekend


~Paradox

[Skeptic]

Climate change catastrophism never stops. If we see a change in the world, especially if we can blame it on human action, it must be a catastrophe!

Gulf stream changes, ecological changes in the sea and typhoons.

Bear in mind, when you examine these claims, that ocean temperatures in temperate to tropical regions have increased by only 0.5 Celsius in the last 35 years. (For the 35 years before that, the oceans were cooling).

To suggest that such a small change can have such drastic effects smacks of Hollywood. And over the next 50 years, ocean temperatures may, on average, increase another 0.5 Celsius.

Take hurricances. They begin as a result of sweeping winds that converge in tropical areas. The strengths of these winds depend on temperature DIFFERENTIALS over wide areas of latitude. Global warming actually reduces these differentials by heating the higher latitudes more than lower. Once the hurricane is under way, it is driven by warm, moisture laden air condensing to release water droplets, and heat. Average ocean temperature change as low as 0.5 Celsius cannot have much impact on this. It needs a localised 'hot spot' which is a result of local conditions, not global climate change.

Take marine ecology. I have been scuba diving at the Poor Knights Islands for 40 years. (I also have a degree in biology). When I began, there was much excitement over the discovery of sub-tropical species in these temperate waters. Remember that this was towards the end of a 35 years cooling cycle. The excitement died down, except for rare occasions when a new rare species was discovered. This continues today. There has been no trend towards more subtropical species - only occasional discoveries. The only thing that has increased is the degree of publicity that a new discovery gets.

Yes, the world is warming, and this warming is probably partly due to human activity. However, to predict catastrophe is not smart. We can expect the world to continue warming. The oceans will continue to warm. And those who expect dramatic and catastrophic change will continue to be disappointed.

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

Yes, the world is warming, and this warming is probably partly due to human activity. However, to predict catastrophe is not smart. We can expect the world to continue warming. The oceans will continue to warm. And those who expect dramatic and catastrophic change will continue to be disappointed.

Skeptic,

You have proven again that Denial is not a River in Egypt.

Things are crazy. It's not the media. It's the events they report. 15 million homeless in China and another 5 million parched by drought...their water rations being trucked in. If anything this trend is underreported. Why cause a panic? The economy might suffer. What a joke.

~Paradox

[Skeptic]

Paradox.
Things are ALWAYS crazy.
You mention 15 million homeless in China. In the early 1960's it was 30 million dead of malnutrition in China, due to Mao and his evil plots.

Prior to the Green Revolution, India would suffer famines, in which 10 million would die of hunger. In World War II a million people died each month. Ethiopea suffers droughts and a million die. A Tsunami strikes South East Asia and 300,000 are killed and millions left homeless.

Disasters affecting millions have ALWAYS struck. Sometimes it is human caused, and sometimes natural. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tidal waves, wars, droughts, floods, famines. You name it, and they have always happened.

Some happen with greater frequency today, and some with less. For example, the number of major volcanic eruptions since 1900 has been less than the long term average. Famines are less today than before the Green Revolution. Droughts happen at about the same frequency.

If you look for disasters to support a catastrophist argument, you will find them, because they are always present.

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Skeptic

If you look for disasters to support a catastrophist argument, you will find them, because they are always present.

Skeptic,

D-E-N-I-A-L

[Paradox]

Skeptic,

Seriously. Your argument hinges on what we are experiencing being status quo or par for the course. You imply through your innuendo's that the evil media and the environmentalists are the problem, scaring people to sell their newspapers and push their fascist political agendas. Who is paranoid here?

People don't get all the dirt in mainstream media. A snipet here and a snipet there is not going to cut it. Yes, I may FLASH alarming news and studies up on this lonely little forum but the average Joe isn't going to see it. I am not out to convince you of anything. I think you are under reacting and you think I am over reacting. One way or another we'll see who's right soon enough. Like next week maybe.

Honestly though, I think we're in trouble because the evidence implies such. The evidence does not seem to support your whole variability argument...which hangs by a thin and fraying thread. You show me some good news, papers or research. I'm all ears. The truth of the matter is--there are none. The evidence is pointing to a major event occuring in the very near future. One could suggest it has already started and is increasing exponentially.

So what does that mean? It means that you are fortunate to have grown up when you did (in a relatively calm period). Your children and grandchildren may not be so lucky. Especially if your fringe minority view continues to prevail in the highest level of government. Business as usual is a frightening prospect. At least panic could prompt change...

...and it will.

~Paradox

Hurricane Ernesto UPDATE

[Skeptic]

Paradox.
I quote nothing but hard data. I reject speculation.
Yes, the world is warming, and yes it is related to human activity.
However, that is a long way from predicting disaster. The world has warmed many times in the past. Temperature change has been often many times that of the present. The end of the last glaciation period showed a warming that makes ours look like a childs toy.

Let me make you a real prediction of real disaster. About 400 million years from now, the sun will be hot enough to render the Earth's surface totally sterile. That is, over 100 degrees Celsius. That is a reality, predictable from very long term trends in astronomy.

If you believe in the Gaiea hypothesis/ philosophy, then that is when Gaea dies.

The next 100 years, on the other hand, will involve a slight warming - probably about 1.5 Celsius. There will be changes as a result of this warming. Humanity will survive without loss of population numbers, and will continue in its long term destiny, whatever that is. And the world of living things will continue, a little bit changed of course, but that is the nature of the world. Over time, everything changes.