We must adapt to climate change or die

[the reporter]

This article was in yesterdays Independant. Is it correct or an over-exaggeration?

As Earth hurtles towards potentially disastrous changes in temperature, top scientists from Africa and the rest of the world will meet South African government officials tomorrow in Midrand to discuss the threat of climate change in South Africa and the sub-continent.

In South Africa, the effects of global warming are predicted to include the spread of diseases such as tick-bite fever, cholera and malaria; the extinction of plants and animals; and ruined crops.

Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka is to deliver the opening address at the National Climate Change Conference, where delegates will thrash out options for responding to the crisis.

Globally, nine of the past 10 years have been the warmest since records began in 1861. Research confirms that climate change is "a real and significant threat to biodiversity in South Africa", according to Guy Midgley of the South African National Biodiversity Institute.

South Africa's botanical treasures - the succulent Karoo and fynbos biomes, recognised as specialised ecosystems of rich plant biodiversity - are under grave threat. Once temperatures rise 2,4¼C higher than they are now, the Karoo's 2 800 endemic plant species will become extinct. Above 3¼C, the Kruger National Park is projected to lose two-thirds of its animals.

Some species in the Kruger Park are already disappearing, Norman Owen-Smith, a Wits university scientist, said. "Half the species in the park may want to be somewhere else in 20 to 30 years' time."

Sable and roan antelope in particular will want to move west of the Kruger, where rainfall is higher, he said, but are unable to move beyond the park fences.

South Africa's biodiversity provides livelihoods for a significant number of rural South Africans who are victims of poverty, Midgley said.

This was confirmed by a report on the impact of climate change to be presented at the conference this week by Council for Scientific and Industrial Research scientists Graham von Maltitz and Carmel Mbizvo. They predict that in most instances, climate change will add stress to already fragile livelihoods.

Because 70 percent of Africa's population relies on agriculture for its livelihood, and because the continent includes some of the world's poorest nations, it is particularly susceptible to climate change.


Southern Africa's staple food, maize, is particularly susceptible to drought.

The southwestern tip of Africa will see less rain as the planet heats up, Von Maltitz and Mbizvo say, "and it is this area where some of the most severe livelihood consequences may result".

The United Nations Environment Programme predicts that an increase in temperature is likely to reduce soil moisture and soil quality, both of which are vital for agriculture, as well as to generate a proliferation of pests.

The UN has warned that by 2050 as many as 150 million "environmental refugees" may have fled coastlines vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms or floods, or agricultural land that has become too arid to cultivate.

In South Africa, a broad reduction of rainfall in the range of 5 to 10 percent for the summer rainfall region is predicted. This is likely to be accompanied by an increased incidence of drought and floods, with prolonged dry spells being followed by intense storms.

The department of environmental affairs and tourism says the increased temperatures and changes in rainfall can be expected to affect health, including an increase in the occurrence of strokes, skin rashes, dehydration and skin cancers.

South Africa's east coast is expected to become wetter, with an accompanying increase in the incidence of diseases such as cholera, malaria and sleeping sickness.

In a warmer world, mosquitoes and ticks could also expand their range to higher altitudes.

Peter Luckey, the chief director of the department of environmental affairs, told reporters this week that climate change science predicted more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions, and said that "in most cases, they will be changes that affect our everyday lives".

Bruce Hewitson of the climate systems analysis group at the University of Cape Town said what was needed most in this period of climate change was "following up on adaptation and responding to impact".

It was too late to mitigate the effects of climate change, Hewitson said. "There is nothing we can do to prevent climate change for this generation."

[Richard]

Originally Posted by the reporter

This article was in yesterdays Independant. Is it correct or an over-exaggeration?

Since no-one knows what the effects of climate change will actually be then it isn't really sensible to speak about over- or under-exaggeration.

If it becomes bad though, no doubt Africa will be one of the worst hit areas.

[imp]

IMO, the problems facing Africa are:
1. Poor political and economic structure - the US is paying off African countries that adopt the US model - this will help, especially w.r.t. property law.
2. European and American agricultural subsidies to their own farmers - this anti-globalisation practice is a result of special interests seeking to keep American and European farmers afloat, which also keeps much of African agri-business out of the money.

Way down on the list of African problems would be global warming. There is a greater rush to integrate Africa into the global economy the faster the global economy expands. This will, IMO, more than offset any economic costs to Africa as a result of the additional global warming caused by the faster global economic growth.

[mgopilot]

It looked like a statement of facts and reasonable projections, except East Africa will be hit worse by water shortages, excluding South Africa. Partly from global warming and mainly from overpopulation effects. Maize or corn, should NOT be THE major part of anyone's diet.

[MarkuisMellvile]

Is it correct that crops and animals will be forced to adapt to the impacts of climate change? Of course it is.

Is it correct that the quantities mentioned are an over-estimate, probably not.

Shouldn't the question be "What should be done about this perceived threat to human livelihoods as the climate steadily (or rapidly!) alters?"?

MM

[jaunty albatross]

TheRobster,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4355994.stm

[MarkuisMellvile]

Three links to the same BBC story about the drought in the Amazon basin is beginning to look like Spam jaunty.

And quite what you think a story about South America proves to the Robster (who posted that discussion of relative quantities is unwise until the quantity is established), I don't know.

Robster doesn't say the situation is good, bad or otherwise, just that answering whether the story is exaggerating or not requires quantities to be discussed.

The Robster makes money from designing and selling sustainable drainage systems. He does it for the money, but presumably also thinks the systems benefit the world in some way.

The people who need to be told that people and animals die in the millions because of climatic influences are not those who have taken the time to register usernames in this community. Anyone who reads these threads already knows that, or they wouldn't be here to discuss why or how to change things.

MM

[jaunty albatross]

MM,

I doubt it. You said it yourself and so have I: Adapt or die.
So, how are you all adapting?

[bruce]

Crikey Jaunty, what's your motivation for getting up in the morning?

[jaunty albatross]

bruce,

To expose the delusional thinking that permeates this forum.
(with one or two exceptions)