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Old 26th-July-2008, 09:01 PM
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Default Percentage of climatologists

Hello all. I know there probably isn't an exact percentage that anyone can give me, but I'm curious for an approximation on what percentage of climatologists believe the following:

1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change.
2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth.

I'm just curious if it is more like 99.9%, 99%, 90% or whatever.
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Old 26th-July-2008, 10:53 PM
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Default Climatologist Survey

Dennis Bray and Hons van Storch of GKSS conducted a 2003 survey of climatologists. The survey allowed for a weighted response of 1-7. Source: survey of climate scientists 1996 - 2003

Regarding your first question: "1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change."

One question asked if climate change is moslty caused by humans.

Question 40. Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes.
Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree

Results:
34.7% answered 1-2
43.8% answered 3-5
21.5% answered 6-7

Looks like the scientific community is pretty divided as to whether humans are causing climate change.

A similar question asked if science has proven any human influence on climate change.

Question 76. How much does new scientific discovery in the last decade confirm the anthropogenic influence on climate?
Not At All 1 2 3 4 5 6 A Significant Amount

Results:
11.5% answered 1-2
30.7% answered 3-5
57.8% answered 6-7

So, scientists generally agree that humans have some influence on climate change, but they do not generally agree that humans are causing climate change.

Regarding your second question: "2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth."

One question asked whether scientists have established enough physical evidence for politicians to take action.

Question 47. Natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion.
Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree

Results:
28.5% answered 1-2
38.7% answered 3-5
32.9% answered 6-7

So scientists are pretty evenly divided as to whether or not politicians should be doing anything at this point.
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Old 27th-July-2008, 01:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdlangton View Post
Hello all. I know there probably isn't an exact percentage that anyone can give me, but I'm curious for an approximation on what percentage of climatologists believe the following:

1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change.
2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth.

I'm just curious if it is more like 99.9%, 99%, 90% or whatever.
This doesn't quite answer your question, but it may still be of interest...DailyTech - Myth of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens Global Warming Debate
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Old 27th-July-2008, 01:01 AM
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Here's another fascinating question from the same study.

Question 95. How much do you think the media influences the public perception of climate change?
very much 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 not at all

Results:
92.9% answered 1-2
6.9% answered 3-5
0.2% answered 6-7

WOW! 93% of climatologists agree that the media sways public opinion on climate change.
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You see, the corporations finance the oil companies. And then the oil companies go out, and the corporations sit there in their, er in their corporation buildings and, and see that's, they're all corporationy, and they make money. Mhm.
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Old 27th-July-2008, 10:13 AM
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Fascinating stuff that. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 27th-July-2008, 12:27 PM
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Yeah, that's all great backs up alot of what I've been hearing from people trying to get projects going that are prefering to concentrate on other reasons (such as increasing fuel proces) as justifications for the measures they suggest.
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Old 27th-July-2008, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdlangton View Post
Hello all. I know there probably isn't an exact percentage that anyone can give me, but I'm curious for an approximation on what percentage of climatologists believe the following:

1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change.
2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth.

I'm just curious if it is more like 99.9%, 99%, 90% or whatever.
100% of the Meteorological Organisations that I checked seem to agree with those:

World Meteorological Organization,

Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference
of the Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change


More than a decade ago, on 21 March 1994, the Convention entered into force and the Parties committed themselves to the stabilization of carbon dioxide concentrations, at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Since then, scientific assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed changing the natural composition of the atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transportation. Comparison of past CO2 concentrations, retrieved from air bubbles in glacial ice cores, with the current measurements of the chemical composition of the atmosphere made through WMO’s Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW), shows beyond doubt that the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years. Additionally, it shows that above one half of this increase has occurred since 1950.
...
The impacts of climate variability and change on human and natural systems pose numerous
challenges to sustainable development.


American Meteorological Society,

Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences

There is now clear evidence that the mean annual temperature at the Earth's surface, averaged over the entire globe, has been increasing in the past 200 years. There is also clear evidence that the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased over the same period.
...
Because human activities are contributing to climate change, we have a collective responsibility to develop and undertake carefully considered response actions.

...

Royal Meteorological Society's
statement on the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is unequivocal in its conclusion that climate change is happening and that humans are contributing significantly to these changes. The evidence, from not just one source but a number of different measurements, is now far greater and the tools we have to model climate change contain much more of our scientific knowledge within them. The world’s best climate scientists are telling us its time to do something about it.

Carbon Dioxide is such an important greenhouse gas because there is an increasing amount of it in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and it stays in the atmosphere for such a long time; a hundred years or so. The changes were are seeing now in our climate are the result of emissions since industrialisation and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get.

The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society,
Statement on Climate Change

Our climate has changed substantially

Global climate change and global warming are real and observable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global-mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by around 0.6°C, and the last decade (1996-2005) was the warmest since at least the mid-19th century, when widespread observations first became available.

...
Increasing temperatures have been observed both over land and in the oceans, in rural areas and cities, at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by satellites and radiosondes[1]. This warming has been accompanied by a decrease in the number of frosts, a rapid contraction of almost all alpine glaciers, a reduction in global sea-ice, a reduction in global snow cover (especially in spring), and a rise in sea-level.

The greenhouse effect is a natural and well-understood phenomenon
...

Most of the observed warming is highly likely due to human activity
It is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. ...
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Old 27th-July-2008, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl View Post
This doesn't quite answer your question, but it may still be of interest...DailyTech - Myth of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens Global Warming Debate
Hmm.

Not very accurate reporting there by Daily Tech.

The APS, representing 50,000 physicists have not reversed their position on global warming. You can see their climate change policy statement here

Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.

The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

...


And how could you even believe that that was possible? The APS are scientists. They're not going to suddenly say, oh, yeah, all those papers that were published on climate change over the last 20 years were erroneous are they?

If you look at which scientific organisations disagree with the basics of anthropogenic global warming you will notice that it is none of them.

There has been no flurry of papers finding the the physics of optics has fallen through and the greenhouse effect is now not a fact.

There has been no flurry of papers finding that the climate sensitivity is now much lower than it has been modelled to be currently and has been calculated to be in the past.

Therefore, global warming is real and is caused by the anthropogenic enhanced greenhouse effect, unless you're going to claim that science is rubbish.

Like a homoeopath or creationist.
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Old 27th-July-2008, 04:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustTheFacts View Post
Dennis Bray and Hons van Storch of GKSS conducted a 2003 survey of climatologists. The survey allowed for a weighted response of 1-7. Source: survey of climate scientists 1996 - 2003

Regarding your first question: "1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change."

One question asked if climate change is moslty caused by humans.

Question 40. Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes.
Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree

Results:
34.7% answered 1-2
43.8% answered 3-5
21.5% answered 6-7

Looks like the scientific community is pretty divided as to whether humans are causing climate change.

A similar question asked if science has proven any human influence on climate change.

Question 76. How much does new scientific discovery in the last decade confirm the anthropogenic influence on climate?
Not At All 1 2 3 4 5 6 A Significant Amount

Results:
11.5% answered 1-2
30.7% answered 3-5
57.8% answered 6-7

So, scientists generally agree that humans have some influence on climate change, but they do not generally agree that humans are causing climate change.

Regarding your second question: "2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth."

One question asked whether scientists have established enough physical evidence for politicians to take action.

Question 47. Natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion.
Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree

Results:
28.5% answered 1-2
38.7% answered 3-5
32.9% answered 6-7

So scientists are pretty evenly divided as to whether or not politicians should be doing anything at this point.
Note that this study was turned down for publication in a peer reviewed journal. It has been "criticized on the grounds that it was performed on the web with no means to verify that the respondents were climate scientists or to prevent multiple submissions. The survey required entry of a username and password, but the username and password were circulated to a climate skeptics mailing list and elsewhere on the internet." (wiki)

Note that the results are kind of strange.

42. The IPCC reports accurately reflect the consensus of thought within the scientific community:

72.7% answered 1-3
7.5% answered 4
19.8% answered 5-8

meaning 72.7% agree that the warming is very likely to be anthropogenic, but

40. Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes:
only 55.8% answered 1-3
14.2% answered 4
30% answered 5-8
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Old 27th-July-2008, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdlangton View Post
Hello all. I know there probably isn't an exact percentage that anyone can give me, but I'm curious for an approximation on what percentage of climatologists believe the following:

1. Man is contributing significantly to climate change.
2. Something must be done immediately to save the earth.

I'm just curious if it is more like 99.9%, 99%, 90% or whatever.
There's been no disagreement with point 1 in published research in the last 15 years. Only a few of the thousands of papers on the subject even claim that man's contribution to climate change is not the dominant cause of warming. I would go very close to 100% on that one.

The second point I know less about. The IPCC's opinion is yes, and they are extremely conservative. My guess is a significant most.
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