Deep geomagnetic changes may be driving climate change, not fossil fuels.

[Peter Ravenscroft]

I put this up as a reply to the thread on Antarctic warming models overstating their case, but maybe it is worth one of its own.

Magnetic flux changes at the core-mantle boundary, over centuries, seem to be mirrored on the surface above by the otherwise very puzzling areas of greatest planetary warming, to wit the one around the Antarctic Peninsula and in eastern Siberia. Jeremy Bloxham, now the dean of physical sciences at Harvard, modelled those deep magnetic shifts, using long-term compass declination data, back in 1995. No-one seems to have noticed the match with the temperature trend anomalies at the same locations, as per the NASA/GISS maps.

I am having a devil of a job trying to get the maps on the same projection (simple incompetence) but the dreadfully rough drafts I have managed show the fit gets far better than the original maps suggest. Those are on very different projections. Should anyone care to help, I'd be most grateful. Anyway, see Is climate change linked to geomagnetic changes? | for the preliminary stuff and the links.

I have zip interest in peer-reviewed journals owning copyright to my stuff, it is all public domain. So, this is where it happens, and if you would like to pitch in, this may just be where the IPCC's AGW model comes unstuck.

It seems to me climate change is beyond our control, we best just adapt. The more immediate problem, I think, is oilout and foodout, see http;//publicfoodtrees.weebly.com for some info and ideas on that lot.

[spadlet]

Would you mind letting us know a bit about how this relates to your paid work or previous experience, if it does?

I'm only asking because what you are saying seems interesting but I've heard theories that seemed really interesting in the past, involving calculations etc, and probing revealed that the person was being guided in their work by God. Things like that are fair enough if you have time to learn lots of climate science and check exactly what's been done, but if you don't have time....

[Peter Ravenscroft]

Dear Spadlet,

Righto. I've been a geologist since '71, B.Sc., University of Cape Town. Sub-major was oceanography/marine geology. No other tickets, but did later major in anthropology, for fun. Lots of other work, but mostly an exploration geologist, after base metals, gold and coal. For companies, as a consultant and as a junior explorer. I am not a geophysicist but was lucky enough to have a superb innovator on my team once, who taught me how to use the tools. We did a lot of work comparing different types of data across maps, looking for corrrelations. As a hobby, I spent a few years trying to work out an alternative geology to NASA's past wet Mars model. Try "The long-winded model of Mars" on Google. Hence the "whole planet" perspective. Or attempt at it.

As to political biases, I am of the left and an ex anti-apartheid stirrer. I was once a director of Friends of the Earth (CapeTown) and ran the office there for a year. Camped under a large plastic whale outside the Japanese embassy, etc. Still a greenie. As this always arises, no funding from anywhere, though I would take backing from the devil for this one, if he offered. No particular love or dislike of the oil and coal majors, have worked for several of them, some excellent, some awful. My office is a thirty-year-old drillers' caravan and I live in another, on a patch of land that is so beautiful you might petrify from envy. I have no belief in sky fairies, tree spirits or the rest, just an abiding interest in ancient and modern priestly frauds, from the anthropology angle. So, the gods are innocent of abetting this speculation. Last, I am not of the believing classes, so I do not "believe" what I suggest, I just put it up for consideration.

I am a bit bothered about the oil running out fairly soon and would like to help shift some of the attention of folk concerned with the common good, to how best to cope with that.

[PictAtRandom]

“Major social delusions cost lives and treasure; see history. The mantra that burning
fossil fuels is the main driver of global warming may be the latest such mind mirage.
As many of its chanters want the price of energy pushed up, those least able to pay for
food and transport will, as ever, be hardest hit. “

I think most ‘chanters’ would be glad to see Africa [to name but one] supplied with
cheap solar energy. Social delusions involving the suburban lifestyle and maximising
international travel and trade cost lives, that’s true.

“It does seem that changes in the earth's magnetic field long precede glaciations”

So, as you are addressing recent climate change, does that make the changes over the
last century scientifically predictable?

“Yes, we must curb our emissions but no, that will not bring back some past climatic
nirvana.”

We can still enjoy the tail-end of climatic nirvana. But is it better to take in the
harvest or enjoy the Indian summer [with the aid of a few patio heaters]?

“If the single assumption, that no carbon dioxide has leaked from or diffused within
the ice cores, is wrong, then AGW has no track record and hence no logical temporal
basis.”

So, any measurement of the extent of Arctic ice would be illogical and “out of time”?
As would other evidence from glaciers &c.

Interesting theory, but just picking up on one or two points.

[cbacba]

Peter,

If I understood right, you were looking for T anomolies data/charts. I just happened to stumble across one reading posts elsewhere. It's atmospheric satellite data.

RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description

Maybe this will be of interest.

[Peter Ravenscroft]

Thanks one and all, readers and repliers. I've had more response here in a day than in a month on my website and otherwise.

Dear PictAtRandom, Totally agree, solar power for remote parts of Africa and everywhere else similar looks the best thing. I am an enthusiast (but lazy) for electric bikes, have built and sold one at a fine profit, would like to power them off panels on the shed or house roof. Very tricky up over the bike, blast from passing trucks, etc. See Practical solar transportation plans at SolarVehicles.org, an open-source project to build fuel-less solar energy transportation. for the V series three-wheeler solar vehicles from Montreal, they are inter alia superb for rural use. The plans are public domain. Jeff has a magnetic perpetual motion drive now, but the earlier vehicles are totally reaL Let's hope he has found a chink in the armour of physical reality with his latest, but I am ever a skeptic.

Could we have predicted the last century's temperature rise from the mag shifts? To spot the driver of a global rise of 0.6 degrees C in a century, might be hoping for too much. Compass declination records go back to the sixteenth century for London, but as far as I know, are more than a bit sparse for the Antarctic area and for Siberia, early on. I would guess that if we had good data for those places from way back, we could probably have predicted the local anomalies there in advance. I am simply going on the assumption that deep electric current and magnetic shifts propogate to the surface one hell of a lot faster than heat does, particularly as the heat is partly from the physical convection of lithic material within the mantle plumes. Someone shoot me down if this is nonsense.

On Indian summers. I think we can get past this problem, if we wake up and act. I am trying to get our local member, the current energy minister for Queensland, on the phone, to suggest a Sasol-type coal-and gas-to-liquids plant is urgently needed here. Then back to Sasol in South Africa, who know how to do it and have done so for 50 years. I am not a Sasol shareholder, by the way, but will go for broke if they want to play. Solar is excellent, but will not run our semi-trailer fleet, just yet. And that is what we use to ship our wheat etc., to hungry folk here and elsewhere. So, natural gas and coal conversion first, at least for here. And of course, all the elecrtic vehicles that will do the job locally.

Of course we should measure the ice changes, the more of that the better. Some of the ice thickness data is very conflicting, suggesting that the overall ice mass in Antarctica is increasing, That is not illogical in a warming sceario, as more water evaporates and some descends as ice. Some of the argument that Antarctica is losing ice comes from the unexpected observed extra rise in sea levels of about 2 mm, I think. That rise is assumed to prove the ice is melting overall. But if the 50 million water bores worldwide drawing down the world's aquifers are pushing water into the oceans, that logic collapse.

I am not suggesting climate change is not happening, of course it is and always has, and particularly up here on an interglacial peak. I am just saying that fossil fuel emiissions are very likely not the main driver. A chemistry man of long experience emailed me to say that the laws of thermodynamics and a long-established chemical equation say very clearly that when the temperature of the oceans rises, carbon dioxide will be given off into the atmosphere. I will dredge it up and post, am sure he will not mind. He was scathing of the poor grasp of basic chemistry by the IPCC.

Dear Cbacba,

Ta muchly for that link, will peruse those next.

P.S. "Nil carbon carborumdum" to corrupt and dog-Latin the old adage. That is, (or tries to be) :"Don't let the carbon grind you down." What's "shortage" or "zero"? Anyone?

Hooroo,

Peter.

p.s.ravenscroft@gmail.com

[spadlet]

Ok, I've started reading the PDF from your website, I must admit that I've been a bit too busy to work through the equations but so far it seems to be mostly about measuring the earth's magnetic field and manipulating the data. Although it's interesting in it's own right, I don't understand how it is related to climate change.

Someone suggested to me that they thought the lack of ozone above the poles was causing the Earth's magnetic field to short circuit, does this idea make any sense to you? How would you prove/disprove it?

Another idea I heard was that the Earth's core rotates at a higher speed to the outer layer. This puts an increasing strain on the connections between the core and the outer layer, as the strain increases the magnetic field intensity due to the core decreases until it snaps and rejoins again. Again, do you have any comments?

The final thing this reminded me of was a science prgramme on TV a few years ago (I can't remember which one it was, something along the lines of horizon). The programme talked about how the poles of the Earth swapped over every so often and accodring to research we were over due for one of these pole changes. I think it said that such an event could cause serious changes by I don't recall them actually attempting to predict what those changes would be, or linking them to climate change in any way.

As i'm sure you'll have realised these are all concepts explained in relatively layman's terminology so it's all rather vague. I just wondered if any of them were related to your ideas in any way?

If you feel like replying, that would be cool, if not I'll keep looking through your webby as I get time and maybe ask some more intelligent questions later on.

[Peter Ravenscroft]

Hi Spadlet,

The questions are very welcome.

The key to this lot is the mapped spatial coincidences. The radial intesity mag shift map that Jeremy Bloxham did in 1995, in what was basically an introduction to geomagnetism, showed modelling he had done on the core-mantle boundary flux shifts. The highest core-mantle boundary magnetic field change regions shown there pretty much lie directly below where several global temperature change maps show the regions of greatest heating on the planet to lie - the Antarctic Peninsula and eastern Siberia, and now also, (going by the surface mag shifts only as we do not have the deep ones updated, far as I know) south and SSE of Madagascar

My only interest in "manipulating" the data was to try get the two sets of maps on the same projection and with the continents in the same places. My interest is in what is going on, not data bending. I have no particular axe to grind.

I have not yet been able to get the mag and temp maps on the same projections, my apologies to one and all.


The matches the maps show are not permanent over time, as both sets of data are shifting comtinually, and we do not yet have a handle on the time lags. So they match for a while and then the patterns shift. A bit like rain clouds and wet patches pn the ground; not every airphoto run shows a perfect correlation, but there may still be a link.

There is a Ph.D in that lot for someone, and if senior enough in the academic hierarchy and if it all stands up, no doubt a few science prizes in due course.

It is very curious that it seems the closest fit to the magnetics on the satellite microwave temperature data is at the troposhere-stratosphere boundary, or about 10 kms up, and not at the surface. That may mean that as the earth's magnetic field shifts and weakens, the shield around the planet weakens above the points of maximum change, as one might expect, and that that allows more cosmic radiation, in particular solar protons, in. They bring a lot of energy and are mostly deflected usually by the magnetosphere. As they increase in numbers during sunspot activity, ir may be we have a complicated and rather beautiful waltz going on between our magnetic field and that of the sun. Someone could set it to music, using the graphs of insolation as the basis of the symphony.

Yes, the rotation speeds deep down are thought to be out of synchn, and that may in time trigger the magnetic field reversals. Those irregularities will be what are driving both plate tectonics and the magnetic shifts here discussed. See the stressed backyard dynamo analogy on my website. But, Google can explain that in detail better than I.

If there is a link between the mag field and ozone, I do not know, but I would guess that it is more likely the mag changes are driving the ozone ones, than the ozone "shorting" the magnetics. Almost all the theorists seem agreed the geomag fields are generrated almost entirely internally.

Mag reversals are well covered on the net. We understand then almost perfectly, of course. We just don;t know why they happen or when they will.

How do we test any of this lot? How do we test the greenhouse model? Neither is easy. Meanwhile, the pollies and the planners are clamouring for certainty, and in most cases, are telling us we have it already. That last surprises some of us older geological types, as we have so often found that both our own and others models have not stood up to the complexities of reality. My own experience was that every drillhole changes the model, unless the model was too vague to be useful to start with. With the deep ice cores, we have just two drillholes,both on the same continent

So now we understand the climate of whole planet for the last 740,000 years? Pull the other leg, its got a goat tied to it.

I'm a geologist, not a geofink, so I will fairly rapidly get out of my depth in this geomagnetism field. Best to just consider the maps, and then do your own research and checking. Or, run it past several folk whose field this is.

I simply cannot see any way that AGW can explain this lot. Let's watch the mag and temperature changes now developing south of Madagascar for a couple of years. And then see how the IPCC will explain that lot. Also, the mag shift off Brazil, is not yet, I think, showing up in the temperature change maps. Maybe it never will, but this lot may yet have predictive value for the met. people. We will see.

Regards to you, and to all readers,

Ta for the interest.

Peter.