Next decade 'may see no warming'

[hoon]

The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Next decade 'may see no warming'

[cbacba]

So what's the next news story going to be like, something like this?

It appears scientists from the Institute of Bad Weather, CLimate and Phrenology have announced today that their new climate model shows that direct claims of AGW may have to wait a while as the pending glaciation stage is expected to last for at least 80,000 year. Serious detrimental effects from AGW are still expected over this natural glaciation cycle as it's intensity and duration appear to be well below normal with temperatures expected to reach an upper latitude average of 5 degrees above the average -40 C which normally accompanies such cycles. Additionally, ice sheet thickness is also expected to be much thinner, averaging a mere 5000 feet in places where previous glaciations were thought to be covered over by at least 10,000 feet of ice. Finally, AGW is expected to have shortened this natural cycle by almost 20,000 years, which will mean after this relatively short interval that we will be right back in the same global warming frying pan with temperatures continuing to dramatically rise by 0.2 C per century for at least a century following the end of the glaciation. Nobel Lariat AlGor was quoted as saying "I've been warnnin' you all for years about breathing out CO2 day in and day out and so now, We're all gonna fry!".

[treekiller]

Ha! very nice post cbacba. Nice summary of current climate modeling accuracy.

[screener]

interesting, I guess it's always nice to have some new source of data and to figure out how to use it in a model. It's not new as speculation though check out just about any page in Paradoxs' long thread.

------ THE SKY IS FALLING ------

Pretty much right from the start there is talk about the negative effects on the currents and temperatures of the oceans, largely because of the ice melt that is happening, and the ameliorative affects on global warming. This new material isn't considering the air or land temperatures so it seems they may be overstating the case for cooling.

[arno]

Interesting, but my understanding was that the leading science suggests that natural variations are an order of magnitude less dramatic than the human-caused global warming.

[cbacba]

Originally Posted by arno

Interesting, but my understanding was that the leading science suggests that natural variations are an order of magnitude less dramatic than the human-caused global warming.

well, if you grossly exagerate AGW and virtually totally ignore natural variation, you stand a chance of success at making such claims and as long as you keep them in the realm of video games rather than reality, you can prove it all you want, especially if you 'claim' in your calculations that effects with massive negative feedback are somehow only contributing positive feedback.

[screener]

I guess no matter how warm the land and air get, the oceans will always have a moderating effect, at least as long as there is any ice still melting, and beyond. There was some talk a little bit ago about stratification occuring at that point because there would be less cold water to sink forcing circulation patterns.

[cbacba]

there's far more than that to it. There will always be circulation patterns as this is heat convection and it will always be more heat coming in where the sun is at the zenith and far less where the sun remains far away from zenith. As long as there is liquid ocean, there is a reserve to provide h2o vapor which is lighter molecular weight than the rest of the atm and it will evaporate and rise until the point where clouds will form, carrying heat as it goes. when the clouds form, there will be significant reflection of solar insolation occur, reducing the heating effect coming in by increasing earth's albedo. It's a self regulating system with massive amounts of negative feedback.

Albedo data for the last 20 yrs indicates variations of about 8% in overall coverage, including a giant dip around 1998 - the ultra hot year. It would appear to be rather good correlation between the albedo and the surface temperature, something totally missing from the the co2 vs avg T with time during recent times. However, never fear, it would seem that co2 does plot well with sea surface T - creating something suspiciously like a solubility chart and hinting strongly at the prospects that T drives co2, far more so than man.

[screener]

Perhaps I was overstating what I saw about stratification, without the polar ice melt there would be a lower level of movement in the oceans as extremes always tend to push. Like the global warming debate for example. On the other hand I suppose that if many areas are allowed to flood there will be a higher albedo effect. Perhaps the Earth is the great moderater.

[screener]

cbacba I was surprised by another of your posts and the comment that water has a low reflectance except at a low range of angles. I can see then that as the ice goes the oceans will warm faster, and that in itself could create the same circuit effects.