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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 6th-January-2008, 12:41 AM
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for amusement, here is a quick very rough back of the envelope calculation of co2 in the atmosphere for earth, venus and mars

earth - about 0.056 moles/ square inch surface to space column. 1 mole is avagadro's number of molecules (6.023E+22).

venus - about 10330 moles/ sqr in or 184000 x the amount of earth

mars - about 2.24 moles / sqr in. or 40 x the amount of earth.

typical venus surface temperature 735k

typical earth surface temperature 288k

mean mars surface temperature 227K

Typical venus TOA insolation based on 0.72 AU = 2636 w/m^2

Typical earth TOA insolation based on 1.0 AU = 1367 w/m^2

Typical mars TOA insolation based on about 1.5 AU = 607 w/m^2

net result - the absolute temperature on venus is about 2.5 x that of earth with 184000 times the co2 level and twice the incoming energy at TOA. (note that clouds block the vast majority of incoming energy and outgoing energy anyway).

The absolute temperature of mars

the absolute temperature is about 3/4 that of earth with about 1/2 the incoming solar insolation and 40 x the co2 levels.

note that the 40x is actually the number of molecules of co2 in the path which is directly proportional to the optical pathlength tau and the amount of attenuation of the absorption is exp(-tau*pathlength) where tau is a function of density (molecules/ (Area * distance) in path).

for mars to balance radiatively, the outbound LW over 4*pi*r^2 needs to balance with the I*pi*r^2 of the SW incoming. or the output LW needs to be I/4 = 607 = 151.75 w/m^2

using stefan's law with sigma = 5.67E-8 J/s*m^2*k^4

determining T comes out to be 227K - assuming emissivity of 1.0.

for the nominal temperature observed of 227K this is exactly what is expected for a blackbody radiator and calculated using stefan's law and ignoring the atmosphere.

Note that the 0.15 albedo is for sunlight and is probably the Bond Albedo which is visible only. Emissivities for rocks and sand tend to shoot up into the > 0.96 realm for LW radiation even when the typical visible light emissivity is in the range of 0.85 (corresponding to 0.15 albedo).

Hence with 40 times the amount of co2 in the atmosphere, there is no obvious observable greenhouse effect where the atmosphere is moderating the climate there in excess of 1 deg K or so.

Note that the only other difference is going to be less line broadening due to lower pressure which spreads out the tails of the absorption lines while reducing the peaks somewhat. Trying to put that in is well beyond the scope of a back of the envelope calculation.

Perhaps this will put a bit more perspective on interpretting and understanding what is involved in the GHG based GW and it's comparison to other examples.
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Old 6th-January-2008, 01:28 AM
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No I like it. Thought provoking once again.

I would say Mars albedo effect of 30% since it's all desert rock, The fact that the atmosphere is nearly all CO2 and virtually nothing else. Close to a vacuum if you see and believe Total Recall. And CO2 as pointed out to me doesn't reabsorb it's own infrared radiation. So There is no H2O to help out of which is 95% of the earths GHG's. Therefore there is less absorption and re-radiation. And there the fact the planet is a lot cooler, so has anyone measured the spectrum of infrared light that leaves Mars? And since Co2 is logarithmic, it would be near the saturation limit since there is far less infrared light leaving Mars altogether.

One last point, Mars has a smaller circumference so there is more chance of the infrared leaving the planet after CO2 infrared emission. Since there is little chance of re absorption in the atmosphere. There would be a GHG effect on Mars, just not as anywhere near as noticable.
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Old 6th-January-2008, 02:32 AM
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GHG's have much less effect on Mars, even at much higher concentrations, because of pressure difference (i.e. a very thin atmosphere)
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Old 6th-January-2008, 04:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Windguy
No I like it. Thought provoking once again.

I would say Mars albedo effect of 30% since it's all desert rock, The fact that the atmosphere is nearly all CO2 and virtually nothing else. Close to a vacuum if you see and believe Total Recall. And CO2 as pointed out to me doesn't reabsorb it's own infrared radiation. So There is no H2O to help out of which is 95% of the earths GHG's. Therefore there is less absorption and re-radiation. And there the fact the planet is a lot cooler, so has anyone measured the spectrum of infrared light that leaves Mars? And since Co2 is logarithmic, it would be near the saturation limit since there is far less infrared light leaving Mars altogether.

One last point, Mars has a smaller circumference so there is more chance of the infrared leaving the planet after CO2 infrared emission. Since there is little chance of re absorption in the atmosphere. There would be a GHG effect on Mars, just not as anywhere near as noticable.
Albedo for Mars is 15% per the wiki article on the subject. This is for visible light. The moon is about 12% albedo for comparison.

It doesn't matter that the atm is most all co2 as most all else, like nitrogen and o2 don't absorb in the IR.

Concerning broadening, it's all self broadening for the pressure as other molecules are quite low density.

Total atm pressure is less for two reasons. First off, gravity is only 38% of earth so a 1 pound mass of atmosphere (per square inch) that would generate 1 pound of force on earth is going to generate only 0.38 pounds of force on mars. The actual amount of atmosphere, which determines how much absorption can occur in the optical path is around 1.5% of earth. However, the pressure is more like 1/3 of that (switching units to mks - 600 Pa versus 101,300 Pa). That is quite the vacuum but your eyeballs aren't going to pop out and explode. Actually, they'll freeze rather quickly and you'll get the bends but you won't explode while you suffocate. So much for Total Recall.

The comment on absorption or reabsorption is TOTAL BS. Co2 will absorb and emit based upon its spectrum. Emission is a function of the gas temperature as well as upon the spectrum.

CO2 spectrum has nothing to do with H2O spectrums other than there is overlap. Even on earth the saturation is such that on strong peaks, the absorption pathlength is measured in cm not in meters at the surface. Numbers turn out something like an additional 18-20w/m^2 additional absorption for each doubling from all the calculations I've ever done but that includes all molecules including h2o. CO2 doubling numbers come out around 3.6w/m^2 for the doubling from 1750 and about 2.6W/m^2 for a doubling starting at 1976. Note this last one is a fairly refined one dimensional model rather than a moderately simple slab of atmosphere.

The difference between earth and mars is an additional 5 doublings or so over earth's 8 or 12 doublings for the actual additional pathlength. These of course are averages as peaks vary in absorption strength and strong peaks are extremely strong.

As mentioned, there is 40 times the amount of co2 in the mars pathlength over that of earth's.

H2O on earth is the vast majority of absorption accounting for the majority. One must be careful with the numbers like 95% as some numbers are done for political purposes rather than to clarify the situation. These use the irrelevent circumstance of what if it was the only gas in the atmosphere - what does it contribute rather than what does it contribute while other contributors remain unchanged. One way provides information, the other provides confusion and overestimations. Also, the 95% might include cloud effects rather than gas effects for h20 - that is entirely a different matter and is not calculable to significant accuracy as compared to straight radiative calculations.

Suffice to say though that if h2o vapor is 95% and one assumes co2 is essentially 5%, that is 1/20 of the effect. In reality, it's going to be more like 85 15 but that is somewhat more than 1/20 and when one has 40x the amount, there is some significant contributions, even log scale - probably at least 1/3 more absorption than on earth (not including pressure broadening).

It's safe to assume that mar's spectrum has been observed for ages or at least since the space program started in significant fashion. That is how atmospheric details get measured as well as temperature measurements get made.

there is less IR leaving but there is less visible light energy arriving. It's got to balance. And, evidently it balances rather well without virtually any atmospheric warming.

Note that the 95% contribution (to use your number) of h2o means that not only is there more possible atmospheric energy absorption and required atmospheric warming, it also means that the impact of the co2 is far less than a situation such as mars has without it. That means if you could attribute say 1.6 deg K to the mars atmosphere, for 16 doublings (earth has 11, mars an additional 5) in the log range with each doubling giving roughly a contribution of 0.1 deg K, that means that a doubling of co2 increases T by 0.1 when h2o isn't present but when h2o is present, it will be far less than that due to a fairly significant overap.

The circumference has no effect. Calculations are based upon per unit surface area. Absorption of incoming light is effectively a lambertian disk while emission is over the surface of a sphere.

chris,

I think that it was mentioned that this back of the envelope estimate didn't include differences in pressure broadening. However, I think you'll find there is far less difference than you might first believe as most of the absorption in the lower atmosphere where pressures are higher and lines broader are also reradiated numerous times at progressively higher altitudes which have significantly less pressures on earth hence emitting and absorbing narrower lines. In the mars case, all the lines are emitted and absorbed with somewhat narrower bandwidths even from the ground.

In either case, you'll note that the absorption lines of the spectrum only exist because the atmosphere above the emission area getting through is at a lower temperature than the emission area. Were the temperature the same, there would be no absorption lines and if the temperature in the atmosphere were higher, you would start to see emission lines.

Finally, it cannot be repeated enough to remind people that radiative transfer is only one means of thermal energy transport in an atmosphere. Convection is a very powerful transport mechanism in the troposphere. Above there in regions where it ceases being important, you're already at very low densities and there is little above to block the radiation.
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Old 10th-January-2008, 11:20 AM
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Ross Welford
Default Re: Global warming due to man-made activities ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aracari
Why the hell do you think there's a incredibly steep CO2 and temperature rise in the last 60 years, right after the industrial revolution and population explosion?? We are everywhere, we have caused great damage to the planet already... if you can't see this, I'm sorry for you.
But that's not true is it? Between about 1940 and 1970 temperatures fell - giving rise to well-publicised fears of a "new ice age". This was a period that saw the post-war regeneration and a massive increase in industrial output and transport. Temperatures then started to climb again, but then stopped in 1998. It's not such a close correlation as we are led to believe.

Furthermore, temperatures on earth have been much higher than they are today. It's reckoned that during the time of the Roman Empire, and again during the Middle Ages it was very warm indeed, long before cars, planes, industry etc.

Hoax? I dunno.

Opportunity for a bunch of smug, sanctimonious busybodies to strut around telling us how to live "better" lives? Definitely.
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Old 10th-January-2008, 12:07 PM
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Default But what if you are wrong?

Our leader of this post tends to think man is all but faultless in speading all his disturbances of our Earth processes.
But lets think about if he is wrong and man's contributions top the natural scale of say vocanoes erupting in Chile?

You know it could br Our earth was ready to let us humans stck around maybe another 10 thousands years .
but maybe humans themselves have hasten their own eviction notices,

nnow lets look at it if say we actually did something to cut our contribution of green house gases?
Wouldn't one tend to believe that our reduction just might makke our say great grandchildren a little more happy in the world which they will live?


We spend billions upon billions on weapons of war . Surely our friend Our Leader the Original poster should be willing to give a couple bucks to his grandchildren.

And A Way He Can Do Just That Is REUSE
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Old 10th-January-2008, 01:48 PM
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give something to the grandkids? - like the bill for medicare? the bill for social security? ulcers from thinking mankind is a bull in a china shop? the belief that if they turn the thermostat up above 68 F in wintertime that they're going to die? I'm beginning to wonder who is treating their grandkids better, you or the arab jihadhist.
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Old 10th-January-2008, 05:02 PM
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Default Re: Global warming due to man-made activities ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross Welford

Opportunity for a bunch of smug, sanctimonious busybodies to strut around telling us how to live "better" lives? Definitely.

=D> =D>
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Old 18th-January-2008, 06:33 AM
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icareforyou
Default Is there is any other explanation for what Ross wrote?

Can somebody come out with any man-made reasons for earlier occurances of global warming, sever floods, etc. We are only imagining man-made reasons for present climate change situation.

In fact, the main reason for the climate change may be due to global warming caused by other natural, earthly and solar events such as eruption of volcanoes, 11 year cyclic sun storms, etc. However, one can only try to minimize the contribution from man-made activities for global warming such as use of fossil fuels for electricity generation and for fueling transportation vehicles, including aircrafts and space vehicles.

Also, the Global Warming Potential of other greenhouse gases like fluorine compounds, methane, etc is much more than carbon dioxide. Methane is released from the decaying vegitation and is much more potent (http://icareforyou2007.blogspot.com).

It is difficult to believe that a fractional rise in the ambient and ocean temperature can cause the great meltdown of large Greenland and west Antarctica glaciers.

It is also possible that the actual gravity of the situation was not told seriously to the world in time by the responsible organizations (like IPCC), or there are yet unknown natural reasons such as effect of variations in the geothermal energy for the climate change.
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Old 18th-January-2008, 09:18 AM
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the gravity of the situation has been hyped to the max. The theory that ghgs might be contributing to a warming has been converted into an absolute truth and promoted and defended with religious zeal by those who do not even understand the nature of science.
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