[Wobs]

Originally Posted by LMagic007

You are just repeating the same argument. As I indicated, nothing is guaranteed. Everything has limitations. I have already indicated technologies of all kinds have positives and negatives.That's life and it wont stop the technologies evolving further and improving, just because of that. The writing is on the wall and most people can see it. In the context of energy and environment, the world is living on borrowed time. Game over.

Have you checked the global energy outlook lately ? Oil prices ? predictions of $200 a barrel, we are well on the way to that already. Peak Oil. Fewer countries are exporting oil each year. The Arab nations are keeping more oil in the ground to help prop up prices maximize profits. The evidence is clear that reserves appear to have been overstated. What oil there is remaining is getting more difficult and costly to extract and more environmentally detrimental to extract. Other fossil fuel prices are rising.

Sand91_7014.pdf page 11 as you mentioned talks about 1990 financial environment in regard to profit levels of SEGS. A few things have changed since then. Technology has improved, Oil prices have tripled ( from around $40 a barrel to over $120 per barrel ), other fossil fuel prices have risen significantly. Experts say there is no going back to old prices this time around. China and India have transformed their economies and global demand for oil and resources is said to have a long period of growth ahead. Climate change is more serious an issue then ever before. Carbon tariffs are looming over the next few years. Mandated renewable energy targets are also driving demand for renewable energy solutions. The environment is now set for renewable technology to take a more prominent role in the energy mix. The cost dynamics have changed in favor of renewables of varying kinds, Solar Thermal being one of the more promising. It's a whole new ball game now.


Page 13 also talks about constraints to barriers of taxation, regulation and policy in 1991. Yet today all these dynamics have changed in favor of renewable energy. It also remarks about fairly average management back then, in terms of not managing growth opportunities effectively, which is not surprising with it being relatively new technology and many unknowns back then. The technology is far better understood today. It's a completely new ball game now, which is why big projects are being built and planned. Further more, big name companies, with deep pockets are getting behind these technologies.


We should indeed be cautious about twiddling our fingers and inaction. Fortunately the reality is that the world is more aggressively looking at alternative renewable energy technology , than just contemplating the possibilities.

I still believe NREL has got is spot on in the context of the longer term.

I put:

In addition, one of the reasons that the older versions failed was money. Taxes, and the failure of expected fuel price rises contributed to its demise. http://www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/pdfs/sand91_7014.pdf page 11
"....along with a variety of other problems proved to be overwelming for LUZ."

Also, page 48 we have "Moreover, there is often a false confidence that the renewable energy technologies will be available if and when they are called upon to play a larger roll in our energy economy"

I've repeatedly tried to explain my position, and you just don't get it. I'm well aware the issue with taxes has changed, that oil prices have recently risen. But you seem to think that all costs will continue to change as they have been recently, and that its pointless to discuss any other other issues. I struggle to think of a more narrow minded view.

I'll say it again. None so blind.