2 million barrels a day! cool.
Yet as we all know, world demand went up from 79 million barrels a day to 84 million barrels a day in about one year. (2003 to 2004.)
Demand is increasing because the "elasticity" of the oil market is so low. We just have to have the stuff. Looking at the big picture again, as Matthew Simmons says "Once we've peaked, you no longer grow!"
Another comment on Katrina.
Remember before 911 there was this strange little spin off series from the X-files called “The Lone Gunmen?” These geeky crime fighters foiled a terrorist plan to fly a remote controlled jet into the New York World Trade Centre.
I recorded this “Lone Gunmen” episode and watched it AFTER I had already watched 911. The Lone Gunmen flew an airline up towards buildings that no longer existed. It was surreal.
It seems this is about to happen again!
Peak oilers have raved about a documentary called “Oil Storm.” It’s a scenario in which America’s economy collapses after a hypothetical (September 2005) hurricane destroys the gulf rigs and refineries, limiting oil supply and ravaging the fabric of American society. Oil storm screens Sunday week on 7, here in Sydney Australia.
“Oil Storm” previews here.
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/orig...torm/main.html
All too alarmist? “No way”, says the pentagon! They ran a oil think tank called “Oil shockwave”. I have read summaries that concluded only a 4% decline in oil supply to the USA would shatter their economy…. but I have to admit to you all that I have not actually read this myself from the “oil shockwave” reports. If anyone finds it, please tell me where… I have too many reports on my desktop as it is. They also have video and audio files to use.
“Oil Shockwave” at
http://www.secureenergy.org/shockwave_overview.php
Now, you can see where this is all heading. If the USA government has bungled Katrina, what about the REAL oil storm that’s coming?
The Hirsch report concluded that it takes 20 years to wean off oil, and peak oil is nearly here. Katrina is merely a dry run for the chaos to come. It will be interesting to see how closely OIL STORM predicted the reality we have already been confronted with. Their hypothetical storm flies in over a district that no longer exists in reality. More interesting will be their longer term scenarios, and how true they pan out in the "real life" of daily documentary.
We are only on the “bumpy plateau” of Hubbert’s peak. The permanent decline has not begun yet (although OPEC just admitted sweet crude is in decline worldwide… our sweet oil is turning sour, which is already driving prices up.) What will happen when we enter the permanent arc of decline is anyone’s guess.